On June 2nd, the CDC stopped providing updates of weekly provisional mortality data due to system upgrades. Based on my correspondence with the CDC, there was some data that must be entered manually and the usually processing backlogs have increased. I am told the disparities will resolve.
As you would expect with missing data there are fewer reported deaths with 2022 being the most affected, about 53k less. As a result, the correlation between COVID and All Cause deaths that had begun to breakdown with the April 27th report, has reversed somewhat. The higher correlations should retrace to the low 90s. as the backfill continues. The normal backlog (there is about a 12 week lag before data stabilizes) must also be processed.
Of course, conspiracy theories abound. As a lobbyist friend of mine always likes to say, never assuming cunning when competence will suffice. The CDC, as well as many other federal agencies are operating in 2nd gear and have been since 2020. They have also been the recipient of gobs of money from COVID relief bills. Of, course, if someone was running the joint properly, system upgrades and maintenance would have been announced ahead of time.
Changes in the data, at this point, do not affect the macro thesis that Americans are sicker, post-COVID, than before and that will contribute to more intense utilization for the rest of 2022 and into 2023.
Emily Evans
Managing Director – Health Policy
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