Below is a chart and excerpt from today's Early Look written by Macro & Housing analyst Josh Steiner.

Remember, simpler is often better when accuracy is the objective. When rates move dramatically, Housing becomes a one-factor model – in both directions. Perhaps of equal interest is that historically, when rates have broken down following a positive expedited rate shock, the move in the other direction has tended to endure for years.

CHART OF THE DAY: Negative Rate Shocks - nrs2