Hedgeye Cartoon of the Day: Fourth Circle
It is 6.20.22, and Active Short MPW is overvalued by approximately ~$14.36/share.
Tickers: BRT, NXRT, TCN, VRE
Subsector: Apartments & Single-Family Rentals
Headline: Increasingly bearish on residential REITs, adding higher-leveraged names to Short Bench
- First off, apologies for no Sunday night note last night, had a new addition to the family this weekend so was tied up. Mom and baby both doing great! Back at it this week.
- We are adding several of the more highly-leveraged residential names (BRT, TCN, VRE), alongside NXRT added last week, to the Passive Short (Bench) as we are increasingly bearish on a significant portion of the residential REIT sector. CPT remains on the Active Short list.
- Pretty much all of the residential names are staring down a RoC slowdown beginning about ~3 months away in 3Q22 (with the possible exception of EQR, which we have as an Active Long), are complete disasters from a signaling perspective and are BEARISH trend in Quad 4, and as Hedgeye's Macro team has been vocal about in recent months the consumer is under significant stress which is just increasing from here. At the same time, residential is clearly a consensus long in our view as we increasingly hear "where else can we hide right now?" and "what else do you own here?" The sector has obviously traded lower YTD, but is still outperforming the XLRE by +360bps, +1610bps and +2870bps over a 3M, 6M and 1YR basis, respectively, and +570bps YTD (which normalizes a bit for the BRG and APTS take-outs). We think investors could get caught offsides here and have preferred lower beta names/subsectors in a developing and deepening Quad 4.
- We expect (1) rent growth to continue to slow from here, particularly in the Sunbelt, (2) higher bad debt expense going forward for certain names like AVB and anyone with CA exposure (namely INVH & ESS), and (3) the higher-levered names to materially underperform the rest of the residential group and REITs broadly.
Figure 1: Updated Hedgeye REITs Position Monitor
PDF LINK
Prior Notes:
6.17.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 6.17.22 | (MPW - MORE BAD NEWS)
6.17.22 - REITS WEEKLY VALUATION HANDBOOK | 6.17.22
6.16.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 6.16.22 | EXPLORING MPW'S PRIORY TRANSACTION (MPW)
6.12.22 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | 6.12.22 | (FR, PGRE, NXRT)
6.10.22 - REITS WEEKLY VALUATION HANDBOOK | 6.10.22
6.8.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 6.8.22 | (NAREIT, POSITION MONITOR UPDATE)
6.6.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 6.6.22 | (MPW)
6.5.22 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | 6.5.22 | (JUNE NAREIT PRESENTATIONS HITTING)
6.3.22 - REITS WEEKLY VALUATION HANDBOOK | 6.3.22
6.3.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 6.3.22 | (ANOTHER ONE ON MPW)
6.2.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 6.2.22 | (MPW)
6.1.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 6.1.22 | (CPT TO BEST IDEA SHORT LIST)
5.30.22 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ (ON MONDAY) | 5.30.22 | (UHAL, FIRST WEEKLY VALUATION HANDBOOK)
5.26.22 - UHAL F4Q22 RESULTS - BIG OOF ON DIY | 5.26.22 | (UHAL)
5.25.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 5.25.22 | (MPW MUST LIVE ON ANOTHER PLANET)
5.24.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 5.24.22 | (REMOVING COLD FROM BEST IDEA SHORT)
5.22.22 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | 5.22.22 | (OFC, STYLE FACTORS)
5.20.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 5.20.22 | (MPW)
5.18.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 5.18.22 | (POSITION MONITOR UPDATE)
5.17.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 5.17.22 | (MPW)
5.16.22 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ, A LITTLE LATE | 5.16.22 | (CUBE, PSA, EXR, LSI, UHAL)
5.12.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 5.12.22 | (APARTMENT RENT TRACKER)
5.10.22 - RADI 1Q22 RESULTS | TIMING IMPACT DRAG; POTENTIAL DEAL ALL THAT MATTERS | 5.10.22 | (RADI)
5.8.22 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | 5.8.22 | (RADI)
5.6.22 - COLD 1Q22 RESULTS | SETTING UP ANOTHER GUIDANCE CUT? | 5.6.22 | (COLD)
5.5.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 5.5.22 | (HR/HTA/WELL, LSI, NSA)
5.4.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 5.4.22 | (EXR/PSA 1Q22 RESULTS)
5.3.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 5.3.22 | (HR, HTA)
5.1.22 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | 5.1.22 | (AMH, MPW)
4.29.22 - MPW HEARING FOOTSTEPS? | 4.29.22 | (MPW)
4.28.22 - AVB 1Q22 RESULTS | BIG BEAT DIDN'T HAPPEN, BUT FY22 OUTLOOK RAISED | 4.28.22 | (AVB)
4.27.22 - INVH 1Q22 RESULTS | ROC ROLLING OVER EVERYWHERE | 4.27.22 | (INVH, AMH)
4.26.22 - EQR 1Q22 RESULTS | DISAPPOINTING QUARTER | 4.26.22 | (EQR)
4.26.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 4.26.22 | (AVB 1Q22 PREVIEW)
4.25.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 4.25.22 | (EQR 1Q22 PREVIEW)
4.24.22 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | 4.24.22 | (AMH, INVH, TCN)
4.22.22 - EVENT REPLAY: MPW BEST IDEA SHORT BLACK BOOK (MPW)
4.21.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF - LATE EDITION | 4.21.22 | (MPW)
4.19.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 4.19.22 | (PLD 1Q22 RESULTS)
4.17.22 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | 4.17.22 | (MPW)
4.13.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 4.13.22 | (OFFICE UTILIZATION)
4.12.22 - EVENT INVITE | MEDICAL PROPERTIES TRUST (MPW) BLACK BOOK | THURSDAY, 4/21 @ 10:00AM ET
4.10.22 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | 4.10.22 | (MACRO STYLE FACTORS)
4.8.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 4.8.22 | (PLD)
4.7.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 4.7.22 | (OFFICE UTILIZATION, PGRE)
4.5.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | POSITION MONITOR UPDATE | 4.5.22 | (AMH, MAA, MPW)
4.3.22 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | 4.3.22 | (CXW)
4.1.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 4.1.22 | (CPT, INVH)
3.31.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 3.31.22 | (APARTMENT RENT TRACKER)
3.30.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | SELF-STORAGE ASSUMPTIONS | 3.30.22 | (CUBE, EXR, LSI, NSA, PSA)
3.27.22 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | 3.27.22 | (CXW, INVH, ONL, WE)
3.22.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | PGRE REJECTS MONARCH OFFER | 3.22.22 | (PGRE)
3.20.22 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | 3.20.22 | (INVH)
3.18.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | COLD REMAINS TOP SHORT IDEA | 3.18.22 | (COLD)
3.16.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | SFR ASSUMPTIONS SHEET | 3.16.22 | (AMH, INVH)
3.15.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | POSITION MONITOR UPDATE | 3.15.22 | (SUI)
3.13.22 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | 3.13.22 | (INVH)
3.11.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | POSITION MONITOR UPDATE | 3.11.22 | (WE)
3.9.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 3.9.22 | (OFFICE UTILIZATION)
3.8.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 3.8.22 | (APARTMENT RENT TRACKER, AMH, INVH, TCN, ILPT)
3.6.22 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | 3.6.22 | (WE)
3.4.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | POSITION MONITOR UPDATE | 3.4.22 | (WE)
3.4.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 3.4.22 | (RADI MODEL UPDATE)
3.1.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 3.1.22 | (WE)
3.1.22 - FOLLOWING UP W/ ADDITIONAL THOUGHTS ON HR | 2.28.22 | (HR, HTA)
2.28.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | POSITION MONITOR UPDATE | 2.28.22 | (HR, HTA)
2.27.22 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | 2.27.22 | (HR, HTA)
2.26.22 - UPDATE FOLLOWING MONARCH BID | POSITION MONITOR UPDATE | 2.26.22 | (PGRE)
2.24.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 2.24.22 | (COLD 4Q21 RESULTS)
2.24.22 - UPDATE ON INVH COURT CASE | 2.24.22 | (INVH)
2.24.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 2.24.22 | (PGRE)
2.23.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | POSITION MONITOR UPDATE | 2.23.22 | (INVH, COLD)
2.20.22 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ (A LITTLE EARLY FOR FUN!) | 2.20.22 | (INVH SHORT)
2.17.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | POSITION MONITOR UPDATE | 2.17.22 | (INVH)
2.16.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | POSITION MONITOR UPDATE | 2.16.22 | (UHAL)
2.15.22 - INVH 4Q21 RESULTS | JUST NOT ENOUGH | 2.15.22 | (INVH)
2.13.22 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ - SUPER BOWL EDITION | 2.13.22 | (UHAL)
2.11.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 2.11.22 | (OFC 4Q21 RESULTS)
2.10.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 2.10.22 | (REXR 4Q21 FOLLOW-UP)
2.9.22 - REXR'S FY22 OUTLOOK DISAPPOINTING | 2.9.22 | (REXR)
2.9.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 2.9.22 | (EGP)
2.8.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 2.8.22 | (REXR, APARTMENT RENT TRACKER)
2.6.22 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | 2.6.22 | (RADI)
2.4.22 - EVENT REPLAY | RADIUS GLOBAL INFRASRUCTURE (RADI) BLACK BOOK
2.2.22 - AVB FY22 GUIDANCE CONSERVATIVE | 2.2.22 | (AVB)
2.1.22 - EQR 4Q21 EARNINGS BEAT | 2.1.22 | (EQR)
1.31.22 - POSITION MONITOR UPDATE | 1.31.22 | (O, NNN, WY, CUBE, LSI)
1.30.22 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | 1.30.22 (AVB, EQR, WE)
1.27.22 - EVENT INVITE | RADIUS GLOBAL INFRASRUCTURE (RADI) BLACK BOOK | FRIDAY, 2/4 @ 10:00AM ET
1.27.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 1.27.22 | (OFC)
1.26.22: REITS DAILY BRIEF PART II | 1.26.22 | (RADI)
1.26.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 1.26.22 | (COLD)
1.25.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 1.25.22 | (APARTMENTS, OFFICE UTILIZATION)
1.25.22 - Will $MSTR Be Forced To Sell Their Bitcoin? (Bonus)
1.23.22 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | 1.23.22
1.22.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 1.21.22 | (COLD)
1.21.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 1.19.22 | (AMH, WE)
1.19.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 1.19.22 | (PLD, COLD)
1.17.22 - MONDAY NIGHT HOLIDAY REIT READ | 1.17.22 (RADI, PLD)
1.12.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 1.12.22 | (APARTMENT RENT TRACKER)
1.11.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 1.11.22 | (POSITION MONITOR UPDATE)
1.10.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 1.10.22 | (WE, REXR)
1.9.22 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | 1.9.22
1.6.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 1.6.22 | (PSA, POSITION MONITOR)
1.5.22 - ESRT <--> PGRE: A WIN-WIN ALL AROUND? | 1.5.22 | (ESRT, PGRE)
1.4.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 1.4.22 | (PGRE)
1.3.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 1.3.22 | (POSITION MONITOR UPDATE, PGRE)
12.29.21 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 12.29.21 | (Position Monitor, TCN, DLR, EQIX, ELS, SUI)
12.23.21 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 12.23.21 | (AVB, CPT, EQR, MAA)
12.21.21 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 12.21.21 | (BRG, U.S. OFFICE UTILIZATION)
12.19.21 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | 12.19.21 | (PSA)
12.17.21 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 12.17.21 | (Storage, Manhattan Office)
12.16.21 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 12.16.21 | (FR)
12.15.21 - EVENT REPLAY | FIRESIDE CHAT W/ WEWORK CEO SANDEEP MATHRANI
12.14.21 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 12.14.21 | (U.S. OFFICE UTILIZATION)
12.12.21 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | 12.12.21 | (WE)
12.11.21 - EVENT REMINDER | FIRESIDE CHAT W/ WEWORK CEO SANDEEP MATHRANI
12.10.21 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 12.10.21 | (ESRT)
12.8.21 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 12.8.21 | (APARTMENT RENT TRACKER, U.S. OFFICE UTILIZATION)
12.7.21 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 12.7.21 | (SLG)
12.6.21 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 12.6.21 | (WE NOVEMBER OPERATIONS UPDATE)
12.5.21 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | 12.5.21 | (PGRE, EGP, PLYM, MAA, CPT, O, EPR)
12.2.21 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 12.2.21 | (WE)
12.1.21 - IGNORE CNBC RE: WEWORK RESTATEMENT | 12.1.21 | (WE)
12.1.21 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 12.1.21 | (U.S. OFFICE UTILIZATION, WE)
11.30.21 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 11.30.21 | (AMH)
11.28.21 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | 11.28.21 | (COLD)
11.23.21 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 11.23.21 | (U.S. OFFICE UTILIZATION, WE)
11.21.21 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | 11.21.21 | (WE)
11.19.21 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 11.19.21 | (CUBE)
11.17.21 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 11.17.21 | (STYLE FACTOR WORK)
11.16.21 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 11.16.21 | (U.S. OFFICE UTILIZATION)
11.15.21 - CUBE ANNOUNCES STABILIZED ACQUISITION | 11.15.21
11.15.21 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 11.15.21 | (WE, ILPT)
11.14.21 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | 11.14.21 | (CUBE, EXR, LSI, NSA)
11.11.21 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 11.11.21 | (LSI, NYC CBD OFFICE)
11.10.21 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 11.10.21 | (UHAL, CONE, COR, NSA, PSA)
11.9.21 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 11.9.21 | (U.S. OFFICE UTILIZATION, SFR)
11.7.21 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | 11.7.21 | (APARTMENT RENTAL RATE TRACKER, POSITION MONITOR UPDATE)
11.4.21 - REIT RECAP | 11.4.21 | AMH 3Q21 RESULTS
11.4.21 - REIT RECAP | 11.4.21 | CUBE 3Q21 RESULTS
11.4.21 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 11.4.21 | (COLD, IRM, EARNINGS SURPRISE MONITOR)
11.3.21 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 11.2.21 | (LSI, POSITION MONITOR UPDATE)
11.2.21 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 11.2.21 | (PSA, U.S. OFFICE UTILIZATION)
11.1.21 - REIT RECAP | 11.1.21 | PSA 3Q21 RESULTS
10.31.21 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | 10.31.21 | (3Q21 EARNINGS SURPRISES, POSITION MONITOR)
10.28.21 - REIT RECAP | 10.28.21 | CPT 3Q21 RESULTS
10.28.21 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 10.28.21 | (EXR)
10.28.21 - REIT RECAP | 10/28/21 | INVH 3Q21 RESULTS
10.28.21 - REIT RECAP | 10/27/21 | AVB 3Q21 RESULTS
10.27.21 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 10.27.21 | (3Q21 Earnings, AVB, EXR, Office)
10.26.21 - REIT RECAP | 10/26/21 | EXR 3Q21 RESULTS
10.26.21 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 10.26.21 | (EQR, REXR)
10.25.21 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | 10.24.21 | (POSITION MONITOR)
10.21.21. - REIT RECAP | 10/21/21 | REXR 3Q21 RESULTS
10.20.21 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 10.20.21 | (EGP, PLYM, REXR, ILPT)
10.19.21 - VIDEO | American Homes 4 Rent (AMH) Thesis
10.19.21 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 10.19.21 | (COLD, SLG, VNO, AMH, U.S. Office Utilization)
10.18.21 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 10.18.21 | (PLD)
10.17.21 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | 10.17.21 | (PLD, POSITION MONITOR)
10.15.21 - REIT RECAP | 10/15/21 | PLD 3Q21 RESULTS
10.13.21 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 10.13.21 | (PLD)
10.10.21 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | 10.10.21 | (POSITION MONITOR UPDATE)
10.8.21 - BLACK BOOK ROUND-UP | AMERCO (UHAL)
10.7.21 - BEST IDEA ROUND-UP | AMERICOLD REALTY TRUST (COLD)
Please e-mail with any questions.
Rob Simone, CFA
Managing Director
Twitter: @HedgeyeREITs
