Japan's TFR Declines. NewsWire

NewsWire: 6/15/22

• In 2021, Japan's TFR declined for the sixth year in a row. The population's natural increase (births minus deaths) was -629K people, the largest negative number ever recorded. (The Washington Post)
• NH: Japan's Ministry of Health has just released the country's 2021 vital statistics. Unsurprisingly, births declined. 
• In 2021, Japan's total fertility rate (TFR) came in at 1.30. That is down from 1.33 the year prior.
• This marks Japan's lowest TFR in 15 years. Back in the 1980s, 90s, and 00s, Japan was renowned for having the lowest TFR of any major country in the world. But Japan rebounded while many other countries, especially its wealthy neighbors in East Asia, kept sinking. So Japan's current drop no longer impresses us the way it did back in 2005. In South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Macau, and Singapore, TFRs range from 0.8 to 1.1. (See "Asian TFRs Are in a Race to the Bottom.”) 

• In absolute numbers, Japan's births fell from 841K in 2020 to 812K in 2021. That's a -3.5% decrease. Deaths rose from 1.37M to 1.44M. That's a +5.1% increase.
• We learned in April from the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications that Japan's total population in 2021 dropped by -644K people to 125.50M. But total population counts are often erratic due to fluctuating net migration. Natural increase (births minus deaths) is a more stable measure of a country's demographic trajectory because it only looks at fertility and mortality. And according to the Ministry of Health's new vital data, the 2021 "natural increase" was -629K people. That's the largest decline ever recorded. 

• Over the years, we have written several NewsWires on Japan's attempts to boost fertility. (See "Japan Increases Marriage Bonus.”) Many of these efforts were the brainchild of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. But Japan's current leader, Fumio Kishida, seems less interested in the issue. In his extensive January 2022 speech outlining policy goals, Kishida dedicated a single sentence to raising the birthrate. And in a fall 2021 report, the Cabinet Office admitted that baby bonus programs had failed to raise the birthrate. 
• A few months ago, we wrote a NewsWire on the South Korean government creating a new task force that would focus on helping the country adjust to a shrinking population. (See "South Korea Tries to Get Ahead of Population Decline.”) The government wasn't giving up on pronatalist policies; it was simply acknowledging a baby boom wasn't in the cards. I suspect Japan is heading in a similar direction, accepting that low fertility is here to stay.