Asian TFRs Are in a Race to the Bottom. NewsWire

NewsWire: 6/9/22

• Japan now has a higher birthrate than any other well-off East Asian or Southeast Asian country. Japan’s birthrate started off lower three decades ago, but has since declined much less steeply. (The Economist)
  
• NH: Japan is well-known for being the world’s grayest nation. Nearly 30% of its population is over 65, and its fertility rate has been declining steadily since the 1950s.
• In 1990, when the country’s TFR dropped to a then-record low, the so-called “1.57 shock” made headlines. In the two decades since, Japan’s fertility rate has continued falling--but now the country been joined or surpassed by every other rich Asian economy, whose TFRs have tumbled even more.
• Japan’s fertility rate of 1.3 in 2020 remains one of the lowest in the world. But Japan looks positively fecund compared to South Korea (see “South Korea's TFR Drops Again”), Taiwan, Hong Kong, Macau, or Singapore, whose TFRs ranged from 0.8 to 1.1.

• The sharpest decline over this period occurred in China, whose TFR plunged from 2.3 to 1.3. Over the same thirty years, Japan's TFR has fallen only one-fifth of this distance, from 1.5 to 1.3. With its large elderly population, Japan remains a much "grayer" country than China because its fertility has been low for so much longer. But on its current trajectory, China will catch up fast.
• The Economist offers some theories for why Japan’s fertility rate is faring better, including the fact that its housing situation is less daunting for young families. But IMO, the biggest takeaway from these data is how dire the demographic situation is in China, which our readers know has some of the highest housing prices and education costs (as a share of income) in the world. (See “The Daunting Cost of Raising Kids in China.”)
• Xi Jinping’s much-trumpeted push for “common prosperity” last year was meant to address these issues. (See “China Goes All-In on ‘Common Prosperity.’”) But for the time being, this initiative has been quietly put aside as China focuses on shoring up slowing growth.