For the First Time in Seven Years, the US Birthrate Increased. NewsWire

NewsWire: 6/2/22

• In 2021, the US birthrate increased for the first time since 2014. The TFR was 1.66, up from last year’s record low of 1.64. (The Wall Street Journal)
  
• NH: It finally happened, folks. The US birthrate rose--albeit slightly--for the first time in seven years. According to the CDC’s preliminary report on 2021 births, the general fertility rate (GFR) increased +1% YoY, to 56.6 births per 1,000 women aged 15-44. And the total fertility rate (TFR) increased from 1.64 to 1.66. 

• Births in 2021 totaled 3,659,289, which is a rise of only about 46K from 2021. But at least it's a rise.
• The birthrate rose for all age brackets 25+. The most significant increases were among women aged 35-39 (+5%) and 30-34 (+3%). Conversely, teens (15-19) recorded a -6% decline. This continues a decades-long decrease in teen pregnancies. 

• Back in February, we foresaw this rise in the GFR and TFR. (See “Is the Pandemic Baby Bust Smaller Than Expected?”) Early 2021 data showed that births fell in January and February but rebounded remarkably from March through September. We predicted that the rebound would push CY 2021 births to be slightly higher than births in CY 2020.
• So why did fertility increase? I suspect stimulus and the low number of Covid-19 deaths in the summer and early fall of 2020 convinced more people to have children. Parents could also be "making up" pregnancies they delayed at the beginning of the pandemic. 
• Of course, this slight rise doesn’t mean America’s fertility woes are over. The 2021 birthrate is still -2.7% lower than the 2019 birthrate. And with high inflation and the threat of recession, young couples could be even more hesitant to start a family. (See “Do Falling Birthrates Reflect Changing Priorities?”)