DoorDash update
DASH is a SHORT
In an PR yesterday, DASH says 2Q22 standalone Marketplace GOV is $12.5-12.7B vs prior $12.1-12.5B and reaffirms adj EBITDA $0-100M vs FactSet $66.3M. At $12.69B this represents 21.4% YoY growth versus 24.6% in 1Q21. The "increased outlook is primarily due to stronger than expected order frequency and average order values," but what about frequency and order value in the core restaurant business? The company completed the acquisition of Wolt, with the Wolt standalone 2Q22 marketplace GOV is estimated at $800-850M and Adj EBITDA ($80M)-($70M). The Wolt forecast GOV of $800-850 million in 2Q22 is up 30% from $652 million in 1Q21 and down from $888 million in the first quarter of 2022. "The macroeconomic and geopolitical situation in Europe has changed significantly in the past months," Wolt CEO Miki Kuusi said in emailed answers to questions to Reuters. DASH + Wolt (includes Wolt only from the closing period of the acquisition on 5/31- 6/30; conversion rates are presented at the exchange of $1.07 to euro - Marketplace GOV $12.8-13.0B Adj EBITDA $0-100M. Wolt was founded in 2014 and joined forces with DoorDash in 2022. DoorDash operates in 27 countries today, 23 with the Wolt product and brand.
This commentary from Black Box supports slowing trends in the USA for DASH core restaurant biz - "For both full and limited service, the share of off-premise sales as a percentage of the total continues to be elevated relative to the pre-pandemic norm. However, the rate at which off-premise sales are growing year over year has slowed down considerably and is now negative for both. The decline in off-premise growth is more significant in full-service restaurants than for those in limited-service."
Black Box Trends
Restaurant sales growth fell during the week of 5/22, with the industry seeing its worst results since the week ending March 20. However, sales hold on to positive sales growth YoY despite the slowdown due to a higher average check. The last time the industry experienced declining sales was the week ending March 7, 2021, when restaurants lapped over the pre-pandemic period for the last time on a year-over-year basis. Sales and traffic growth rates slowed during the week; traffic deteriorated at twice the rate of the decline in sales. Restaurant traffic growth has declined for the last 11 consecutive weeks. The best performing segments based on sales growth during the week were fine dining, upscale casual, and family dining. The segment with the softest sales growth was quick service, followed by casual dining. For both full and limited service, the share of off-premise sales as a percentage of the total continues to be elevated relative to the pre-pandemic norm. However, the rate at which off-premise sales are growing year over year has slowed down considerably and is now negative for both. The decline in off-premise growth is more significant in full-service restaurants than for those in limited-service. Only five states experienced negative sales growth during the week: Illinois, Mississippi, Nevada, New York, and Alaska. The best performing regions based on sales growth were New England, the Mid-Atlantic, California, and the Southwest. The regions with the weakest sales growth were New York-New Jersey, Texas, Western, and Southeast. The only region with negative sales growth during the week was New York-New Jersey.
