Good morning, If you have questions or anything else on your mind, email and we'll get back to you ASAP.
KEY CALL OUT
Job Openings in Healthcare were 2.027M in March 2022 versus its 10 year high of 2.052M reported in February 2022. We'll see the April update tomorrow morning at 10AM and we think the trend is sequentially lower. While there are nurse shortages, we think the behaviors that drove the extraordinary climb in Openings is more fluid than many expect and extreme readings are not fixed or permanent. First, COVID inpatient and ICU occupancy peaked in January and drove the percentage of hospitals reporting critical staffing shortages to 20%, but since the Omicron peak the ratio has fallen to 9% and remains at pandemic lows. Not only has BA2 failed to change the trajectory for COVID occupancy and staffing shortages, we are now seeing COVID inpatient and ICU occupancy declining in the states that were early in the BA2 case trend.
ADP reports tomorrow as well and we'll have an eye on Health Care employment. More significantly, we'll update our models for the BLS labor report on Friday where we focus primary on Aggregate Hours as a proxy for demand and average wage growth as a key input for provider margins. If JOLTS comes in lower, the set up looks positive for providers like HCA and negative for AMN.
POSITION MONITOR
CLICK HERE for the updated workbook.
ESTIMATE MONITOR
HIMS and PRVA on our long list. ATIP tracker coming over the next week.
PERFORMANCE MONITOR
1 day counter Quad 4 bounce
FACTOR MONITOR
1 day counter Quad 4 bounce
NEWS & TRanscripts
ME: Fourth Quarter Earnings Call Looks like a business built to lose money with both drug development and an uncertain future for consumer focused genomic health service launch.
- We've also grown our customer base to 12.8 million genotyped customers
- Our efforts on the consumer side will now be focused on building a bridge between health risk awareness and health risk and disease management with our new genomic health services...genetic report consultation service with clinicians who are trained in genetic health concepts.
- During fiscal 2022, our personal genomics service or PGS business increased our customer count by 1.5 million genotype customers or 13% to 12.8 million, significantly extending our competitive data advantage. In addition, our active subscriber base in 23andMe-Plus grew from 125,000 to 425,000, contributing meaningfully to revenue and gross margin while also improving on our average customer economics.
- Because the new genomic health service is not anticipated to fully launch until later in the fiscal year, we do not foresee meaningful revenue contribution from these new consumer products and services within fiscal year 2023.
CVS: CVS Health rolls out virtual primary care service "The virtual solution will roll out to Aetna members starting January 1, 2023, and for eligible CVS Caremark members during the second quarter of 2023. Caremark also will introduce virtual specialty care solutions on the platform in 2023."
US Medical Economy: Betting on ‘Golden Age’ of colonoscopies, private equity invests in gastro docs (Modern Healthcare) “We are in the Golden Age of older rectums,” one investment manager wrote in 2017.
TDOC: Reimagining primary care as a seamless healthcare experience (Modern Healthcare) Sponsored content by Teladoc in Modern Healthcare. Its worth reading how Teladoc talks about themselves in a paid advertisement that masquerades as news.
CALENDAR
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Have a great day out there!
Thomas Tobin
Managing Director
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William McMahon
Associate
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*Please note, not all Position Monitor names make it into the MicroQuad output - most likely due to a lack of sufficient historical trading and estimate data.
