Supermarket customers’ concern about inflation (KR)

The supermarket channel is the most shopped food retail channel. They are also the most exposed to consumers concerned about inflation. This makes the supermarkets most vulnerable to trade out, reduction in basket size, and share loss.

We hosted a Grocery Flash Update call yesterday.

CLICK HERE for the webcast replay and materials.

 Staples Insights | Supermarkets concern (KR, ACI), Baby formula inquiry (PRGO), Heir apparent (OTLY) - a3 delet

Infant formula inquiry (PRGO)

The FTC has launched an inquiry into the infant formula crisis. The inquiry will look into any business practices that were taking advantage of families during the crisis. It will look into what factors led the product category to have the level of market concentration that it does.

The FTC will not examine the FDA’s role in shutting down Abbott’s plant without clear evidence it was responsible for the two deaths or to allow Abbott to import product from its FDA inspected plants outside the country. Tariffs and regulatory barriers that greatly limit imports and start-ups are not going to be examined by the FTC, so the inquiry is unlikely to change the structure of the business.

Heir apparent (OTLY)

The WSJ reported that the newly hired president, Jean-Christophe Flatin, is seen internally as the heir apparent for CEO Toni Petersson. The company says that no change is imminent. Mr. Flatin was a former senior executive at Mars Inc. Oatly also recently hired Daniel Ordonez, a former Danone executive, as COO.  Oatly’s $400-500M of capex plans, cash balance of $411M, and credit line requirement have raised concerns.

When the share price is below $5, “not imminent” has a different meaning. CEO Toni Petersson is more responsible for the success Oatly has had than anyone else, but manufacturing is not his skill set. It’s not Nike’s skill set either. Maybe the new executives will take another look at outsourcing more production to a company actually good at manufacturing oat milk – like SunOpta.

Oatly did not say if the new president or COO would take over singing duties.

Staples Insights | Supermarkets concern (KR, ACI), Baby formula inquiry (PRGO), Heir apparent (OTLY) - a2 delete