Trendspotting: Traffic Deaths Hit 16-Year High in 2021

NewsWire: 5/25/22

• In 2021, U.S. traffic deaths rose to a 16-year high. The YoY increase (+11%) was the largest ever recorded. (The Wall Street Journal)
• NH: In March, we highlighted the recent rise in fatal car crashes and predicted that traffic deaths would only get worse due to more risky driving behaviors. (See “The Other Epidemic: Fatal Car Accidents.”) Now the 2021 numbers are out. Traffic deaths not only kept rising; they broke records.
• An estimated 42,915 people died in motor-vehicle accidents in the U.S. in 2021, an +11% increase since last year and the highest number of traffic deaths since 2005. The YoY delta is also the largest percentage increase ever recorded by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. Deaths rose in nearly all categories of crashes, including multi-vehicle crashes (+16%), pedestrian deaths (+13%), and those that involved speeding or alcohol (+5%).
• To be sure, the rise is partially due to more miles driven. Americans’ total vehicle miles traveled (VMT) was up 11.2%, or 325 billion miles, compared to the year before. The per-mile fatality rate thus declined marginally from 2020: 1.33 fatalities per 100 million VMT, compared to 1.34.
• However, 1.33 remains notably elevated from pre-pandemic levels. In 2019, it was 1.11 and had hovered between 1.10 and 1.20 for a decade. Recall that in 2020 traffic deaths weirdly jumped even while miles driven sank. While it might be good news that risks per mile didn’t get worse in 2021, the “normalization” of more dangerous driving habits suggests that the absolute number of deaths will remain high.