The AP and others have reported that Russia claims to have captured Mariupol in what would be its biggest victory yet in its war with Ukraine. This followed a nearly three-month siege that reduced much of the strategic port city to a smoking ruin, with over 20,000 civilians feared dead. There is no immediate confirmation from Ukraine.
The following are observations of the implications after over eighty days of war between Russia and Ukraine from Hedgeye Potomac's geopolitical advisor - Col. Jeffrey McCausland. Please join Col. McCausland and me next Wednesday at 12:30pm for our outlook on the war - invite to follow.
- Russia’s claim that it has now captured the Ukrainian city of Mariupol must be viewed as a pyrrhic victory at best. It is a strategic port on the Sea of Azov and the largest city Moscow has captured. But the Russians had expected success in this operation in a few days. It has taken them over eighty, and there are still reports that pockets of resistance remain in the Azovstahl steel plant that was the final stronghold of Ukrainian resistance.
- The siege of Mariupol will go down in history for both the devastation this city suffered as well being a symbol of fierce Ukrainian resistance and defiance to Russia’s unprovoked attack. Some Ukrainians now compare it to the Spartans defense at Thermopylae or the Alamo. It served as a rallying point for Ukrainian nationalism and may have spurred international support to Kyiv.
- This city that had a population of over 450,000 prior to the war is now a smoking ruin and there are estimates that 90% of the building are either destroyed or damaged. Over 20,000 civilians are feared dead.
- While this may provide Mr. Putin with a desperately needed victory in this war that he launched in late February it occurs in the aftermath of Moscow’s failure to capture the Ukrainian capital, Kiev; its second-largest city Kharkiv, and the sinking of the flagship of the Russian Black Sea fleet. These disasters have resulted in the firing of several senior Russian military officers.
- The siege tied down substantial numbers of Russian troops since the onset of this war and hindered their bid to secure a land bridge connecting Russian territory with Crimea. Russian control of Mariupol will allow Moscow to control the Sea of Azov which will have a serious impact on the Ukrainian economy. It also secures the territory between the Russian border and Crimea which many experts believed was at least one of Mr. Putin’s objectives.
