“The most powerful ideas are almost always the simple ones.”
- Patrick Lencioni
For those of you who don’t know who Lencioni is, he’s a #behavioral and business management strategist who wrote The Five Disfunctions of a Team. He also wrote the Foreword to a book a subscriber sent me titled The Dream Manager.
My wife and I are raising four children. We’re all for goals and dreams. Obviously when building a firm that’s going on 100 people and now a big community in #HedgeyeNation, we’re all living the dream. Teamwork makes the dream work, eh!
That doesn’t mean some people don’t have pipe dreams. I don’t know about you, but some of these “powerful” stories and “projects” that were capitalized in the last few years are not at all simple ones to understand. Now they are crashing in #Quad4.
Back to the Global Macro Grind…
The Quads were a powerful idea. They are simple to understand. They are also simple to execute on if you have the humility to use them as your principle orientation when risk managing the Full Investing Cycle.
Not everyone agrees with that (that’s a good thing because that’s how our dreams get paid for). And now, for the umpteenth time in capital market history, plenty of people are learning the hard lessons of drawdowns and crashes in #Quad4.
Drawdowns and crashes? Yep, last night I tweeted that this is worse than the Dot Bomb Crash of 1.
That tweet elicited more feedback that most things I tweet. I was borderline shocked at how many people flat out disagreed with it. I shouldn’t have been. MANY people have their entire “portfolio” in Crypto and Tesla (TSLA), don’t forget.
Those, of course, aren’t diversified portfolios that have the slightest idea about either The Quads or The Full Investing Cycle. From “stay poor” to laser-eyed #LUNAtics, I never quite understood what these people put their entire savings into.
Do I understand storytelling and chart-chasing when the US economy is in the biggest #Quad2 bubble ever?
Oh yeah, baby. I get that. It was really cool. We were LONG everything from Gabestop (GME) to #Bitcoin and Ethereum at this time last year! Remember the time in May of 2021 when the Doge Coin had $80 BILLION in market cap?
In terms of #BubbleCap (i.e. real capital) lost from #Quad2 Cycle Peaks (everything including Shiba Inu Dog coins and Meta Cool Facebook Equity), this is going to be WAY worse than the Dot Bomb Bubble imploding.
Will that impact the “wealth effect”, consumer spending, yolo-call-option buying behavior, etc.?
A: big time.
While I’m not sure if the laser-eyes are yet capable of doing LUNA tattoo removal, I am very sure that people have no idea how to deal with this level of price volatility and/or regulatory uncertainty.
Q: What is a “stable coin” that drops to 40 cents on the Dollar overnight?
Again, don’t give me some complex answer on the future of the blockchain and/or tell me to bow at the alter of hope.com. Explain it to me simply or I can’t hear a word you are saying beyond the #Quad4 numbers in my head.
One thing I understand and communicate both simply and daily on Crypto and related Equities is our Hedgeye Crypto Tracker. Yep, every single day I measure, map, and model these 10 sick puppies and show you their range of risk:
- Bitcoin 30,304-36,942 (bearish)
- BITO 16.95-22.42 (bearish)
- COIN 53-99 (bearish)
- BLOK 20.57-26.08 (bearish)
- MSTR 191-290 (bearish)
- ETHE 14.24-19.63 (bearish)
- ETHUSD 2006-2571 (bearish)
- SOLUSD 54.02-77.05 (bearish)
- LUNAUSD 2.04-55.66 (bearish)
- AVAXUSD 30.51-50.08 (bearish)
That’s right. For the every day low-price of $9.99/month, the ole Mucker (that’s with an M) got you out of The Maestro’s bullsh-t a LOT higher. MSTR went from Bullish to Bearish @Hedgeye TREND on December the 8th of 2021.
Moreover, it signaled Bearish TREND on Coinbase (COIN) two days later on December 10th, 2021. Not bad, eh?
This is what I love about The Game. Someone like me (lowest SAT score in my class at Yale and completely clueless on how “staking” coins for 10-20% “interest” isn’t a Ponzi Scheme) can get people #OUT without knowing anything.
The #VASP Signal knows everything. I just respect Floki (not the coin) and the Fractal Gods and execute on their simple messages. The low-ends of these Crypto Risk Ranges are collapsing MUCH faster than anything in the Dot Bomb Bubble did.
LIVE on HedgeyeTV @ 11AM ET, my teammates and I will give Macro subscribers our Q2 Macro Mid Quarter Update. For access ping us at .
Immediate-term Risk Range™ Signal with @Hedgeye TREND signal in brackets:
UST 10yr Yield 2.78-3.15% (bullish)
UST 2yr Yield 2.53-2.80% (bullish)
High Yield (HYG) 76.40-79.08 (bearish)
SPX 3 (bearish)
NASDAQ 11,409-12,443 (bearish)
RUT 1 (bearish)
Tech (XLK) 132-144 (bearish)
VIX 27.90-37.29 (bullish)
USD 101.92-104.55 (bullish)
Oil (WTI) 98.25-110.08 (bullish)
Nat Gas 6.40-8.95 (bullish)
Gold 1 (bullish)
Copper 4.10-4.46 (bearish)
TSLA 762-880 (bearish)
Bitcoin 30,304-36,942 (bearish)
Best of luck out there today,
KM
Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer
