Trendspotting: The Ukrainian Refugee Crisis is Reshaping Europe

NewsWire: 5/11/22

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• The mass migration of Ukrainian refugees is the largest migration in Europe since World War II. The majority are fleeing to Poland, but other neighboring countries like Hungary and Moldova are taking in thousands as well. (The New York Times)
  
• NH: With the war in Ukraine now in its third month, it’s estimated that nearly 6 million refugees have fled the country. Another 7.5 million have been internally displaced. Europe hasn’t seen an exodus of this scale since World War II. As a comparison, the number of migrants who sought asylum in Europe during the 2015 Syrian refugee crisis peaked at 1.3M. The Balkan wars in the 1990s resulted in roughly 1.2M refugees, while the aftermath of World War II resulted in upwards of 40M refugees.
• Where are the Ukrainian refugees going? Over half (3.2M) have crossed the border into Poland. Another 883K have gone to Romania, 739K to Russia, 573K to Hungary, and more than 400K each to Moldova and Slovakia. These figures are based on border crossings; they don’t necessarily mean that Ukrainians have settled in these countries. Since they are now free to live, work, and attend school anywhere within the EU, they may have moved on to other places. Non-neighboring countries, including Germany, Italy, and Spain, have also welcomed hundreds of thousands of refugees.
• In smaller Eastern European cities and countries, the flood of refugees has swelled their numbers in just a matter of weeks. The population of Krakow, for instance, has increased 20% (from 800K to 950K) in under a month. And the total population of Moldova, which has accepted the most Ukrainian refugees per capita, jumped by 14%. Many of these countries have been struggling with population decline (see “Why Eastern Europe Rejects Immigration”) and now may end up seeing more immigration than outmigration this year.
• But will it last? Unlike previous waves of migrants, approximately 90% of the refugees in this case are women and children. Ukrainian men ages 18-60 with fewer than three children are subject to conscription and were banned from leaving the country when the war started. If the war ends within the next few months, it’s highly likely that refugees will quickly return. An estimated 30K are already crossing back every day, figuring that life in war-torn Ukraine is preferable to life as a refugee.
• But the longer fighting continues, the more likely resettlement becomes. One recent analysis projected that in the first year alone, the costs of housing and integrating just up to 4M Ukrainian refugees could cost the host nations $30 billion. European governments already shelled out extraordinary amounts of public spending to tackle the pandemic. If they need to put up even more, one economist told the NYT, they’re going to “blow the budget.”