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The Call @ Hedgeye | August 11, 2022

Takeaway: Hedgeye called the #Quad4 crash and prepped our subscribers to pivot their portfolios ahead of time; see how, and join us.

THE MARKET continues to crash... AND we CALLED IT (AGAIN)

We don't care about taking some 'intellectual victory lap', we care that HEDGEYE SAVED PEOPLE MONEY.

Since we kicked off 2022, investors (who 'just kept buying') have been eviscerated. Here's a snapshot of markets year to date:

  • The S&P500 has fallen over -20%
  • Russell 2000 was walloped -24% 
  • The NASDAQ has been crushed over -29%
  • Bitcoin got eviscerated to nearly -57%

this is the worst start of the year for markets in decades.

Go re-read those numbers and let it marinate. 

Investors have very real expenses that are critical to their own lives:

  • Kid's college education
  • Mortgages
  • Business loans
  • College Debt
  • Medical Expenses 
  • Food on the table
  • Retirement Savings

Around 64% of Americans are living paycheck to paycheck. What little savings people have invested in "bull market bullsh*t" has probably been eviscerated. 

Bottom line: We were there to help our subscribers PROTECT & PRESERVE their hard-earned capital, so they're not left sitting on their hands with -30% of their hard earned capital washed away.

Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough began signaling #Quad4 (Growth slowing, Inflation slowing) to our subscribers back in September of 2021, making critical pivots as we entered 2022 in January and February, and along the way.

Watch the six minute video below to see just how we did it.

"The Russell 2000 in short order will be down -20% or more from its cycle peak. I think the NASDAQ's going to crash too, it won't take long."

- Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough on the January 27, 2022 edition of The Macro Show

WHAT'S #QUAD4?

It's when economic growth and inflation decelerate at the same time. It’s also when story-telling, narrative-driven, ‘stock pickers’ with no repeatable investing process get absolutely blown up as risk assets get smoked.

In simple terms, #QUAD4 IS WHEN $H*T BREAKS.

Watch this video from The Call, where Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough and Financials & Macro analyst Josh Steiner talk #Quad4 carnage days before the latest market rout.

The Macro Show is a special live online broadcast offering smart investors and traders of all stripes the clearest market analysis available on Wall Street from Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough, premarket every day. Subscribe here.

At the heart of Hedgeye's mission is to bring best in-class, institutional investment research to all investors... and COACHING investors on how to view markets like (and oftentimes, better than) the pros. In the clip below from a recent edition of The Macro Show, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough described how hedge fund leverage and exposures were influencing the #Quad4 market dynamics. 

The Call is a daily online broadcast featuring stock and sector analysis with Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough and Hedgeye's 40+ Research Analyst team every day before The Macro Show. Subscribe here.

How did we position subscribers? A quick rundown of our ETF signals per our ETF Pro product since January (not to mention the daily calls and risk management coaching from our Risk-Manager-in-Chief, but we'll keep it basic):

  • On January 3, 2022, Hedgeye went long the U.S. Dollar (UUP) and Gold (GLD) (woah, don't tell a story-telling growth stock-picker!) This year, the Dollar is up +9.31%, and Gold has stayed up. Not too shabby considering the S&P 500 is down -20%. #alpha
  • On February 1, 2022, Hedgeye shorted Tech (XLK), Consumer Discretionary (XLY), and Retail (XRT)... they're down -26%, -33%, and -34%, respectively. The Hedgeye Process goes both ways; shorting is key to alpha generation. And if you can't short, underweighting these sectors would've generated alpha all the same.
  • On February 28, 2022, we geared up subscribers for a key #Quad4 tenet: the breakdown of credit. Hedgeye shorted High Yield (HYG) and Junk (JNK)... and they're down -15% and -16% since, respectively.
  • On March 21, 2022, we added MOAR key positions to the short side because we go #bothways, shorting the NASDAQ (QQQ) and the Russell 2000 (IWM). QQQ is down -29% and IWM is down -24%, since.

ETF Pro features Hedgeye's current ETF positioning, including monthly and intramonthly asset allocation pivots, and weekly trading ranges. Subscribe here.

" #Quad4 markets crash from oversold levels. Never forget that. I'm not saying this market has to keep crashing tomorrow (from here). But I am saying it could. 

The good news is we don't have to know what it's going to do. We are on the right side of this crash.

As a team, we take great pride in having helped you preserve and protect your hard earned capital during US stock market crashes since 2008." - Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough in a Real-Time Coaching Note to subscribers going into the market close on 5/5/2022

Staring at a screen, consternating over losses while listening to your advisor or some T.V. talking head explain that 'you have a long time horizon, so don't worry about your portfolio's -20% drawdown!' is NOT how you should be spending your time.

Here at Hedgeye, we’re not about WORDS—we are about RETURNS.

If you’re looking for a better way to protect your hard-earned capital (and make money shorting asset classes that will sustain further losses), we can absolutely 100% help you.

Deep #Quad4 in 2Q was the call. don't miss the next move.