The Generational Divide on Ukraine. NewsWire

NewsWire: 5/4/22

• According to a new poll, young people in the U.S. and Europe are less sympathetic towards Ukraine than their elders. Those over 65 are firmly against Russia, but young people’s opinions are more mixed. (The Economist)
  
• NH: Condemnation of Russia has poured in from Western world leaders since the war in Ukraine began. But according to a new poll from YouGov/The Economist, there’s a big age gap in how average citizens feel about Ukraine. Nearly all (92%) of Americans age 65 and older said that they sympathize with Ukraine over Russia. But among 18- to 29-year-olds, just 56% say the same. That’s a gap of 36 percentage points.
• In Europe, the gaps over sympathy for Ukraine are smaller, but still significant. The difference between older and younger Britons, for instance, is 17 percentage points. In France, it’s 14 points.

• The generational gap was even bigger when pollsters asked people if they believed that Russia was deliberately striking civilian areas in Ukraine. Nearly all (91%) of 65+ Americans said yes, but just 47% of respondents under 30 said the same. This same age pattern was present in Britain and France, though again, the gaps were much narrower (18 and 7 percentage points, respectively).

• Why the divide? One reason might be that young people tend to be less engaged in politics and simply might not be well-informed about what’s going on. In all three countries, young people were much more likely than their elders to respond with “not sure” to either question or “neither” for the former. Millennials are also less trusting of the news media than older adults; they're more inclined to be skeptical of the reporting about Ukraine, especially if they have no first-hand knowledge. Last year, just under 40% of 18- to 34-year-olds told Gallup that they trust the media to report the news "fully, accurately, or fairly."
• Yet these reasons clearly don't account for the entire gap--or explain why it is so much larger in America than in Britain or France. Even when only people who are interested in politics are compared, the difference in sympathy between younger and older Americans is still 28 percentage points.
• IMO, another reason for the gap is these generations’ location in history. Compared to Boomers, Millennials have grown up in an era of low international conflict. The age group surveyed has no memory of the Cold War or of conflicts in which the entire world order appeared to be at risk. From Millennials’ POV, their biggest problems are domestic: declining living standards, rising costs, high debt loads. The war in Ukraine may seem distant and impersonal compared to the issues they face at home, and even more so when it’s on another continent.
• The 65+, on the other hand, came of age when Russia was a serious threat. According to a Pew poll released last month, they are the most likely age group to see Russia as an enemy of the U.S. (83%), as opposed to a competitor or a friend. While a majority of 18- to 29-year-olds also see Russia as an enemy (59%), they’re 3x more likely than the 65+ to see the country simply as a competitor (34% vs. 13%).
• Given that they’ve lived through multiple wars, Boomers are much more likely to believe that the international order rests on the sanctity of nation-state borders and on the preservation of liberal democracy. (See “Socialism is as Popular as Capitalism Among Young Millennials.”) The large gap, in other words, may be driven not just by Millennials' lack of engagement, but also by older generations' greater concern for geopolitical order and their stronger animus against Russia.