Canadian Beer Sales (TAP)
Canadian domestic beer volumes decreased 5.3% in March, improving slightly from the 7.5% decline in February. Imported beer volumes increased 6.2% YOY in March, down slightly from the 7.7% increase in February. 85% of the beer consumed in Canada is made in Canada. Canada’s bars and restaurants were locked down considerably more than in the U.S., so there should be an even larger swing to the on-premise channel this year.
Texas on-premise high (BUD)
Texas reports its alcoholic beverages sales tax receipts monthly. In April, alcoholic beverage receipts increased 27.5% YOY, accelerating from 26.8% in March. April receipts were 22.9% higher than March as seen in the following chart. April receipts are at a post-pandemic high and were also higher than in any month in 2019. The on-premise trends in Texas point to a recovery to pre-pandemic times with a boost from higher prices.
Grocery share Loss (KR, ACI)
Publix reported an 11.7% increase in SSS for the quarter ended March 26, accelerating from 10.5% sequentially. Management attributed the growth in SSS to increased product costs. Gross margins contracted 40bps YOY due to increased product costs that were not passed on to the consumer and increases in the LIFO reserve and distribution costs. Operating margins expanded 70bps. EPS for the quarter was $1.54 vs. $1.32 a year ago. Publix operates 1,294 stores in the Southeast.
Weis Markets reported a 9.4% increase in SSS for the quarter ended March 26, accelerating from 6.9% sequentially. Excluding fuel SSS increased 7.6%. Weis Markets operates 197 grocery stores in the Mid-Atlantic region.
The consensus SSS estimate for Kroger’s next quarter is 3.3% and for Albertsons is 5.0% (Albertsons reported 7.5% for the quarter ended February). The estimates should be higher with food at home inflation of 10%. Not only are Kroger and Albertsons seeing sales grow less than inflation, but sales are also less than the warehouse clubs and discount stores.
