France Re-Elects Macron: What It Means for Europe (Part 2). NewsWire

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NewsWire: 5/3/22

• France’s election results reflect a vast divide in France, with the most affluent, educated, and "satisfied" voters backing Macron. The generational contrast was also stark: Macron did best among the retired and the very youngest; Le Pen did best among working-age voters. (Ipsos)
• NH: In our last NW, we explained how the recent French presidential election, while a solid win for Emmanuel Macron, marks a rising tide for radical politics in general and for Marine Le Pen in particular. Post-pandemic France, we suggested, has renewed its drift toward populism on both the right and the left--along with many other EU democracies, most notably Italy, and "Anglo-Saxon" democracies such as Britain and the United States. 
• This trend has been extensively documented by the Cambridge Centre for the Future of Democracy. In its recent annual survey, the Centre reported that, in Europe, France, Italy, Spain, UK, and Greece are showing both the highest levels of dissatisfaction with democracy as well as the biggest recent shifts toward populism. It also pointed out that this trend is strongly generational--in other words, that younger adults are leading the move toward populism while older adults are the least attracted. (See "Global Millennials: Down on Democracy and Drawn to Populism.")
• A recent Pew study came to a similar conclusion. After comparing 17 advanced economies, Pew found that France ranked number one among European countries in the share of adults who report "very strong" or "strong" conflicts between people in four separate categories: people who support different political parties, people with different racial/ethnic backgrounds, people with different religions, and urban v. urban people. Italy, Spain, Greece, Germany, and the UK also scored high. And in the first two categories, the United States outscored any European country. (See "Yes, the U.S. is Highly Divided--But We're Not Alone.")
• This preamble should set us up for Ipsos's breakdown of the second-round vote in France's recent election.
• The first and overwhelming fact is this. French voters who reported being "satisfied with your life" were more than two-to-one more likely to vote for Macron. Those who reported being "unsatisfied with your life" voted for Le Pen in a landslide. Ressentiment, indeed!

• Now let's break down the vote by age.

• Le Pen won outright in only one age group, 50-59. But recall that, among all voters, Macron won 58% to 42%. So three groups can easily be identified that tilted more than average for Le Pen: all voters aged 25-59, basically, all Xers and older Millennials. Voters under 25 and in their 60s tilted slightly for Macron. And those over 70, very steeply for Macron.
• Why did the 60+ go so heavily for Macron? One big reason is that these voters belong to a political generation that still trusts the experts and believes in a neoliberal society. As the Cambridge Centre points out, these older voters are deeply attached to democratic ideals and highly resistant to populism.
• Another big reason is that these older voters have a great retirement deal after a lifetime of steady earnings growth. So the status quo works for them. And the younger voters don't yet have the deal and aren't experiencing the growth. So the status quo doesn't. And under 25? Most of them aren't yet living on their own with full-time careers. In short, Le Pen did best among voters who are currently working.
• So let's turn to the economy. Here's how people voted by income, financial situation, profession, and education. 

• An unmistakable picture emerges. Macron did best among those French voters who are best served by the system as it now functions. They make the most money. They are most financially comfortable. They have the most education. And they dominate the ranks of the executives, the professionals--and the retired. Le Pen did best among everybody else.
• The lives of French voters over 60 were shaped, economically, by "les trentes glorieuses," those three halcyon decades (1945-75) of buoyant earnings growth for all classes. Economic reality for younger voters is reflected in a popular new term, "le grand déclassement." Which basically means the "great downgrading" or "great demotion." It fits today's younger and less privileged voters who can no longer hope to attain the living standard of their parents.
• Finally, how did people vote by political self-definition? This question asks voters where they stand on the left-versus-right spectrum. Admittedly, this is a very French question: I'm not sure many Americans think in such fine gradations about "lean left" versus "left" and so on. Still, the results are revealing.

• Clearly, if you see yourself in the center, you probably voted for Macron in both rounds. If you lean right, you probably voted for the Republicans (culturally conservative, pro-business) and then for Macron. If you lean left, you probably voted for the Socialists or Greens and then for Macron. If you are simply left, you certainly didn't vote for Macron in the first round--but you held your nose and voted for him in the second.
• Le Pen won outright on the "right," the "very right," and the growing number of politically disengaged. Yet, as we pointed out in our last NW, she also did very well on the "very left." These are like Democrats who voted for Bernie in the 2016 primary and then voted for Trump. That's how much they hated Hillary. And that's how much a lot of these folk hate Macron.
• What will this sort of electorate look like a few years down the road? Well, let's subtract a few million of the oldest voters, packed with centrists. And then let's put younger voters through another recession. Then we'll find out.

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