THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - January 24, 2011


Equity futures are trading marginally above fair value ahead of a very busy week for corporate earnings, key speeches and a number of macro releases. Among highlights, President Obama makes his State of the Union address tomorrow and on Wednesday the FOMC's holds its first meeting in 2011.  The World Economic Forum kicks off in Davos on Wednesday and around 120 S&P 500 companies are scheduled to report earnings.  As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 28 points or -1.27% downside to 1267 and +0.91% upside to 1295.

 MACRO DATA POINTS:

  • 11 a.m.: USDA export inspections (corn, soybeans, wheat)
  • 11:30 a.m.: U.S. sells $29b 3-mo. bills, $28b 6-mo. bills

TODAY’S WHAT TO WATCH:

  • Apple (AAPL): Fred Alger Management CEO Dan Chung sees AAPL reaching $500-shr as corporate customers buy the iPad for business applications and international sales increase, Barron’s “Trader” column reports
  • Berkshire Hathaway (BRK/A, BRK/B) may begin paying dividend of 2% or less in next 12-18 months as available cash increases, Barron’s reports
  • Citigroup (C) raised CEO Vikram Pandit’s base salary to $1.75m from the $1 he earned for each of past two years
  • Genomic Health (GHDX) presented data that supports the use of its Oncotype DX test in some colon-cancer patients
  • Navigators Group (NAVG) sees 4Q charge of $9.2m related to GoM spill
  • Salesforce.com (CRM) may fall 20% or more on rising expenses and a growing number of diluted shares outstanding, Barron’s reports, without citing anyone
  • Southwest Airlines (LUV) in tentative agreement with US Airways to extend Philadelphia airport leases by two years

EARNINGS:

  • Bank of Hawaii (BOH) 7 a.m., $0.69 
  • Steel Dynamics (STLD) 7 a.m., $0.09 
  • Wintrust Financial (WTFC) 7 a.m., $0.20 
  • Halliburton (HAL) 7:04 a.m., $0.63 
  • Sealed Air (SEE) 7:30 a.m., $0.45 
  • McDonald’s (MCD) 7:58 a.m., $1.16 
  • Swift Transportation Co (SWFT) PreMkt, $(0.05)
  • Woodward Governor (WGOV) 4 p.m., $0.39
  • CSX (CSX) 4:01 p.m., $1.09
  • FNB/PA (FNB) 4:01 p.m., $0.14
  • VMware (VMW) 4:01 p.m., $0.44
  • Sanmina-SCI (SANM) 4:02 p.m., $0.41
  • Albemarle (ALB) 4:06 p.m., $0.88
  • Amgen (AMGN) 4:06 p.m., $1.11
  • American Express Co (AXP) 4:08 p.m., $0.97
  • Zions Bancorp (ZION) 4:10 p.m., $(0.36)
  • Cathay General Ban (CATY) 4:30 p.m., $0.13
  • Packaging of America (PKG) 4:30 p.m., $0.53
  • Texas Instruments (TXN) 4:30 p.m., $0.63
  • STMicroelectronics (STM) 5 p.m., $0.24
  • Crane (CR) 5:10 p.m., $0.65
  • Equity Lifestyle Properties (ELS) PostMkt, $0.72
  • RLI (RLI) PostMkt, $0.98
  • SL Green Realty (SLG) PostMkt, $0.89

PERFORMANCE:


The XLB remains the only sector that is broken on the Hedgeye TRADE - 8 of 9 sectors positive on TRADE and 9 of 9 sectors positive on TREND.

  • One day: Dow +0.41%, S&P +0.24%, Nasdaq (0.55%), Russell (0.63%)
  • Last Week: Dow +0.72%, S&P -0.76%, Nasdaq -2.39%, Russell -4.26%
  • Year-to-date: Dow +2.54%, S&P +2.04%, Nasdaq +1.38%, Russell (1.34%)
  • Sector Performance - (6 sectors up and 3 down): - Industrials +0.81%, Financials +0.81%, Energy +0.53%, Consumer Discretionary +0.24%, Healthcare +0.09%, Consumer Staples +0.17%, Utilities (0.09%), Materials (0.25%), and Tech (0.58%)

  EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: 151 (+873)  
  • VOLUME: NYSE 1265.93 (+6.36%)
  • VIX:  18.47 +2.67% YTD PERFORMANCE: -4.06%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 1.57 from 1.65 (-4.71%)

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:


Treasuries were stronger, especially in the belly of the curve, as buyers mentioned Thursday's selloff as "overdone".

  • TED SPREAD: 15.51 +0.203 (1.327%)
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.16%      
  • YIELD CURVE: 2.81 from 2.82

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION:

  • CRB: 334.80 +0.66% (+0.36% last week)  
  • Oil: 89.11 -0.54% - trading -0.82% in the AM (-3.74% last week)
  • COPPER: 430.90 +0.87% - trading +0.43% in the AM (-2.33% last week)
  • GOLD: 1,343.55 -0.64% - trading +0.23% in the AM (-1.15% last week)

COMMODITY HEADLINES:

  • Cocoa Jumps Most Since 2008 in London Following Ivory Coast Ban on Exports
  • Metals Traders Worth $3 Million Amid Shortages as Wall Street Pay Shrinks
  • Ivorian Export Ban May Drive Up Cocoa Prices 10%, Hackett Financial Says
  • Copper Climbs in London Trading on China's Demand, Recovery in Europe
  • Wheat Extends Advance to Five-Month High as La Nina Threatens Global Crops
  • Gold Advances as Longest Weekly Losing Streak Since July Prompts Purchases
  • Cooking Oil Imports by India May Decline in First Two Months, Patel Says
  • Bullish Gold Bets by Funds Slump on Worst Price Slide Since Start of 1997
  • Cotton Soars by Daily Limit on Signs Global Supply May Fail to Meet Demand
  • Rubber Advances to Record as Persistent Rains May Threaten Thai Production
  • Natural Gas Producer Bearish Bets Jump to Three-Year High: Energy Markets
  • Oil Drops in New York After Saudi Arabia's Al-Naimi Signals More Supplies
  • Sugar Output by Kakira, Uganda's Biggest Producer, May Climb 13% This Year
  • Hedge Funds Cut Bullish Cotton Bets to Lowest Level Since July After Rally

CURRENCIES:

  • EURO: 1.3621 +1.12% - trading -0.46% in the AM (+1.74% last week)
  • DOLLAR: 78.213 -0.77% - trading +0.24% in the AM (-1.20% last week)

EUROPEAN MARKETS:

  • FTSE 100: +0.14%; DAX: -0.65%; CAC 40: -0.26% (AS OF 6:45 AM EST)
  • European markets are trading mixed following disappointing Q4 earnings from Phillips Electronics.
  • Ireland up 0.72% as the date of the general election will be brought forward following the decision of the Green Party to pull out of Government.
  • Manufacturing and Services PMI numbers across Europe for January continued to show signs of growth though some numbers were below consensus.
  • Eurozone Final Manufacturing PMI 56.9 vs consensus 57
  • Eurozone Final Services PMI 55.20 vs consensus 54.30
  • Germany Jan preliminary Manufacturing PMI 60.2 vs consensus 60.9
  • France Jan preliminary Manufacturing PMI 54.3 vs consensus 56.9
  • ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet signals in WSJ interview that bank won’t react to temporary jump in inflation caused by higher commodity prices as long as it doesn’t fuel wage increases. Says benchmark interest rate remains “appropriate” at record low 1%. Story
  • Portugusese Economy Minister Jose Antonio Vieira da Silva tells El Mundo newspaper the country doesn’t need a bailout
  • Greek Finance Minister George Papaconstantinou reiterates Greece doesn’t need to restructure EU300b of debt

ASIAN MARKTES:

  • Asian markets are blowing up one by one; Thailand down -4.3% last night, joining China, India, and Indonesia as markets get hammered by inflation.
  • Indonesia down another full 1% last night and is now -10% for 2011.
  • Japan rose +0.69% on bargain-hunting, especially for resource stocks. Honda rose 4% on news it will start producing at a new plant in Argentina in March and a broker upgrade.
  • Miners and banks led Australia up +0.69. Australia Q4 PPI +0.1% seq vs +0.7% consensus, +2.7% y/y vs +3.3% consensus.
  • On fears of a rate hike in China, Hong Kong declined 0.31%, as falls in resource and insurance shares outweighed rises in property developers and local banks.
  • Banks and small caps took China down -0.72% on worries that a rate hike is coming very soon.

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - setup