THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - January 18, 2011


Equity futures are trading mixed with the Nasdaq set to open lower following yesterday's news that Steve Jobs will take a medical leave of absence as the company is set to report earnings after the close.  As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 22 points or -1.26% downside to 1277 and +0.45% upside to 1299.

 MACRO DATA POINTS:

  • 7:45 a.m.: ICSC weekly sales
  • 8:30 a.m.: Empire Manufacturing, est. 13.00, prior 10.57
  • 9 a.m.: Net long-term TIC Flows, est. $40.0b, prior $27.6b
  • 10 a.m.: NAHB Housing market index, est. 17, prior 16
  • 11 a.m.: Export inspections (grains)
  • 11:30 a.m.: U.S. to see $29b in 3-mo., $28b in 6-mo. bills
  • 5 p.m.: ABC consumer confidence

TODAY’S EARNINGS TO WATCH:

  • Delta Air Lines (DAL) 7:30 a.m., $0.24
  • TD Ameritrade Holding (AMTD) 7:30 a.m., $0.25
  • Fastenal (FAST) 7:50 a.m., $0.45
  • Citigroup (C) 8 a.m., $0.08
  • Forest Laboratories (FRX) 8 a.m., $0.98
  • McMoRan Exploration Co (MMR) 8 a.m., $(0.28)
  • Charles Schwab (SCHW) 8:45 a.m., $0.11 (tentative)
  • Cree (CREE) 4 p.m., $0.58
  • International Business Machines (IBM) 4:08 p.m., $4.08
  • Western Digital (WDC) 4:15 p.m., $0.58
  • Apple (AAPL) 4:30 p.m., $5.39
  • Fulton Financial (FULT) 4:30 a.m., $0.16
  • Linear Technology (LLTC) 5 p.m., $0.58

PERFORMANCE:

  • One day: Dow +0.47%, S&P +0.74%, Nasdaq +0.73%, Russell +0.86%
  • Last Week: Dow +0.96%, S&P +1.71%, Nasdaq 1.93%, Russell +2.51%
  • Year-to-date: Dow +1.81%, S&P +2.83%, Nasdaq +3.86%, Russell +3.05%
  • Sector Performance - (8 sectors positive and 1 flat) - Financials +1.61%, Energy +1.08%, Tech +0.89%, Consumer Discretionary +0.61%, Industrials +0.47%, Utilities +0.41%, Materials +0.23%, Healthcare +0.12% and Consumer Staples (0.00%).

  EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: 461 (+732)  
  • VOLUME: NYSE 1059.74 (14.61%)
  • VIX:  15.46 +5.67% YTD PERFORMANCE: -12.90%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 1.46 from 1.39 (+4.97%)

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:


Treasuries were little changed, but tempered slightly weaker as equities rose

  • TED SPREAD: 15.81
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.15%     
  • YIELD CURVE: 2.76 from 2.75

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION:

  • CRB: 333.06 +0.02% (last week: +2.82%)  
  • Oil: 91.02 -0.57% - trading +0.56% in the AM (last week: +3.99)
  • Crude Oil Trades Near a 27-Month High After IEA Increases Demand Forecast
  • COPPER: 438.45 -0.62% - trading +1.20% in the AM (last week: +3.02%)
  • Copper rally on supply shortfall
  • GOLD: 1,360.97 +0.14% - trading +0.55% in the AM (last week: -0.65%)
  • Gold Advances as Europe Debt Concern, Price Decline Spur Investor Demand

OTHER COMMODITY NEWS:

  • Food Prices Causing Riots in Africa Stoke Record U.S. Farm Economy Growth
  • Wheat Advances, Corn Reaches 18-Month High on Rising Demand, Lower Stocks
  • Nickel Rises to Eight-Month High on Stronger Chinese Usage; Copper Gains
  • Cocoa Rises After EU Imposes Ivory Coast Sanctions; Sugar, Coffee Advance
  • Hedge-Fund Bets on Costlier Feeder Cattle Increase to Highest Since 2006
  • Soybeans, Palm Oil to Extend Rally on Tight Supply, India's Top Buyer Says
  • Coal Prices Reach Two-Year High as Flooding in Australia Curbs Production
  • Rubber Futures Decline From Record as China May Raise Rates to Cool Prices
  • Mitsui Mining to Cut Zinc Output on Maintenance Shutdown at Top Smelter
  • Coal's China-Australia Discount at 8-Month High on Floods: Energy Markets
  • Gold Sold in Tokyo Vending Machines Competes with Drinks, Sweets, Lingerie
  • Europe Commodity Day Ahead: First Gold Vending Machines Installed in Tokyo

CURRENCIES:

  • EURO: 1.3295 -0.69% - trading +0.90% in the AM
  • DOLLAR: 79.337 +0.22% - trading -0.61% in the AM

EUROPEAN MARKETS:

  • European Markets: FTSE 100: +1.08%; DAX: +0.95%; CAC 40: +0.81% (as of 07:30 ET)
  • European markets opened higher as positive corporate earnings helped sentiment.
  • The periphery remained in focus as European Finance Minister meet today with uncertainty remaining as to whether there will be any agreement to increase the EuroZone rescue fund.
  • Reports Russia may resume buying Spanish debt and a constructive Spanish bill auction lead to indices extending gains, though the UK lagged after disappointing UK inflation data pared gains.
  • All sectors other than healthcare (0.3%) trade higher led by banks +2.6%, media +2.0% and autos +1.6%.

ECONOMICS:

  • UK Dec CPI +3.7% y/y vs consensus +3.3% and prior +3.3%
  • UK Dec RPI +4.8% y/y vs consensus +4.8% and prior 4.7%
  • Germany Jan ZEW Index +15.4 vs consensus +6.8 and prior +4.3 - German Jan ZEW current situation 82.8 vs consensus 83.8 and prior 82.6

ASIAN MARKTES:

  • Asian Markets: Nikkei +0.15%; Hang Seng (0.01%); Shanghai Composite +0.09%
  • Asian stocks were mixed today, as investors waited to see Wall Street’s reaction to Apple (AAPL) CEO Steve Jobs’s taking a medical leave of absence.
  • Australia rose +0.81, with banks and retail stocks finding favor.
  • Japan erased early losses to close slightly higher.
  • China finished flat, with strong earnings from Industrial Bank and China Everbright Bank despite downward pressure resulting from a report that the country has cut banks’ lending targets 10% for the year.
  • Chalco jumped 5% in active trading on forecasting a return to profit for last year, but Hong Kong finished flat. Local property developers extended yesterday’s gains. Hutchison Whampoa fell 2% on announcing a plan to spin off its ports business.
  • Tech stocks advanced, but could not bring South Korea closed down 0.16%
  • Japan revised November industrial output +1.0% m/m, matching preliminary figure. November capacity utilization index +1.6% m/m to 86.7. December department-store sales (1.5%) y/y. Tokyo December department-store sales (0.3%) y/y..

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1 18 2011 8 25 29 AM