In this exclusive replay from The Outlook, Keith McCullough breaks down how our Growth, Inflation Policy model outlook portends Emerging Market strength, and how to create a global macro portfolio. However, not all Emerging Markets are the same, so Keith hits on the key countries he's been long, and the future Quad outlook across these economies.
McCullough: "This [above] is the China Headline Inflation Projection YoY. So when you look at that, I find that Macro is a lot easier to teach people when you look at it visually instead of reading people's rants and going with narratives.
We go with the numbers. In China they went from nothingness which is deflation, to stagflation potentially peaking around 2Q22E. Stagflation is what they got. So this is new for the Chinese to have this type of a problem. Nothing is worse than real growth slowing when you are in stagflation. The USA hit a stagflation Quad 3 in Q3 of this year, came out of it, and reaccelerated particularly in October.
But in China it's been getting worse, worse, and worse. They had a mildly better October Retail, Sales, & Industrial reports, and that means they went from horrific to less horrific. So directionally, it could be the beginning of something a little less bad and horrific, but we have to wait and watch on that. The signal has an uncanny way of frontrunning that.
This free investing webcast is part of a Outlook series consisting of "Real Conversations" interviews between CEO Keith McCullough and outside guests, Hedgeye Macro Themes deep dives and "The Pitch" – in which 10 Hedgeye analysts "pitch" Keith their favorite stock idea. Click HERE to view the full itinerary page, complete with replays.