10/28/21 06:46 AM EDT

RESENDING: REIT RECAP | 10/27/21 | EXR 3Q21 RESULTS

Takeaway: Just a massive beat by EXR, never seen anything like it

We don't know what else to say besides "we've never seen anything like it." Best Idea Long EXR just reported a +9% 3Q21 Core FFO beat versus Hedgeye and the Street, which came on SSNOI up nearly +28% (!!!) following +20% last quarter. To put those numbers in perspective, they are more than ~2x the next highest SSNOI print since 2012, and well-above our likely Street-high +18.4%. FY21 Core FFO guidance was taken up another +4% at the midpoint, so numbers need to come up here and across the Street, and we would be shocked if this print is not a positive read across for Best Idea Longs UHAL, CUBE and PSA. Some highlights:

3Q21 Core FFO of $1.85/share was a +$0.15/share beat driven by +$0.10/share out of the same store pool weighted heavily towards revenue upside, and then +$0.01/share each from non-same store assets, TIs, higher management fees and lower G&A expenses. So a clean beat across the board.
SSRev +18.4% vs. Hedgeye at +13.2%, driven mostly by upside to average net rents which grew +16.2% y/y and continue to show a favorable RoC trend. Rents are just exploding to the upside.
FY21 Core FFO guidance raised +4% at the midpoint to a range of $6.75 to $6.85 versus Hedgeye at $6.65 at Consensus at $6.56. Again, numbers coming up.
Added another +27 net managed stores since the last press release, resulting in a total portfolio of 827 3PM stores and 1,088 including UJVs.
We are looking for commentary on the call tomorrow regarding 4Q21 occupancy trends and whether they are trending better than expected. It is such an important metric here in gauging the timing and degree of any potential SSNOI deceleration.

Figure 1: EXR 3Q21 Earnings Variances