“The fact is: winning requires selfishness.”
-Tim Grover
No, that’s not my one-liner. And no, I don’t coach kids that way. But it made me re-think how I coach adults. As Grover’s #1 student, Michael Jordan, said in tears during The Last Dance, “if you don’t want to play that way, don’t play that way.”
Winning consistently at the highest level is hard. Really hard. And when Grover wrote this in Winning, it rang in my ears: “Winners don’t care what you think… they know how to say no and feel good about it…”
“They don’t pretend to like an idea just to make others feel good. Winners don’t need to be liked. They just need those results, and if they achieve them they don’t regret being called selfish” (pg 123)… or whatever people want to call them.
Back to the Global Macro Grind…
So who’s winning so far during #Quad2 in Q4, me or Mike Wilson? Ha, gotta have fun with The Game, eh!
On a more serious note, we are hosting the 1st ever HedgEye On The Prize trading tournament. I’m funding over $140,000 in Cash and Prizes. It starts on Monday, October 25th, and I am very interested to see who wins this thing.
Why do it? That’s easy. I want to see people compete, win/lose, and learn. I want to help coach people through this so that they don’t lose a learning opportunity. That’s why I’ll additionally host 8 Coaching Sessions throughout the tournament.
If you have family and friends who have never really been taught the right way to play, get them to sign up. If they don’t like it, I’ll learn something about how I can be a better coach. By the end of the competition, everyone wins that way.
Full Cycle Investors who positioned for #Quad2 in Q4 were winning, again, yesterday:
A) US Jobless Claims got the bond yield ball rolling with a new Cycle Low (not mid cycle, Mike) yesterday
B) UST 2yr and 10yr Yield ramped to new #Quad2 in Q4 (OCT) Cycle Highs of 0.46% and 1.70%, respectively
C) US Stahks! (SPY) punched their ticket for the 55th all-time closing high in 2021
And that all happened with the 2 Top Sector Players in The Game (Energy and Financials) being down on the day!
Nice call you Mucker (that’s with an M), but now what? Oh, that’s easy to see this morning with Commodities inflating again and the US Dollar making the linear-chartists who called it a “breakout” 2 weeks ago look silly.
Dollar Down, Commodities Up, Rates Up, Stocks Up = #winning.
Actually, if you include the all-time (which remains a long time) closing high on SPY that came during the initial #Quad2 breakout call @Hedgeye on December 31, 2020, it’s the 56th all-time closing high under #Quad2 economic conditions.
As a reminder, our call for the US economy to slow, sequentially, from #Quad2 in Q3 to #Quad3 in Q3 happened. Then ye Olde Wall took down their GDP and EPS numbers in SEP at VIX 28.
Remember the time in SEP when the Delta Variant was ROLLING OVER and consensus media opted for Variant Narratives like “Evergrande is Lehman-like global contagion”… wow was that one heck of a buying opportunity.
Wouldn’t it be cool if we had another 3-5% correction in SPY and, selfishly, your son or daughter bought the damn dip and won the Cash in HedgEye On The Prize by NOT going to “cash” and Treasuries like many losing pros did back in September?
Immediate-term Risk Range™ Signal with @Hedgeye TREND signal in brackets:
UST 10yr Yield 1.52-1.71% (bullish)
UST 2yr Yield 0.33-0.47% (bullish)
SPX 4 (bullish)
RUT 2 (bullish)
NASDAQ 14,670-15,416 (bullish)
Tech (XLK) 152.11-161.97 (bullish)
Energy (XLE) 55.29-59.64 (bullish)
Financials (XLF) 38.70-40.84 (bullish)
VIX 13.36-18.75 (bearish)
USD 92.99-93.99 (bearish)
GBP/USD 1.355-1.389 (bullish)
Oil (WTI) 79.75-83.86 (bullish)
Nat Gas 4.85-5.80 (bullish)
Gold 1 (bearish)
Copper 4.34-4.92 (bullish)
Bitcoin 54,092-66,937 (bullish)
Best of luck out there today,
KM
Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer
