Labor shortages across the U.S. economy and the world are a natural and historically consistent consequence of pandemic. In the present day, there are probably 4.2 million reasons why that is the case. Mortality means loss of workers but it also means a reshuffling of priorities for families who need to reconsider child care arrangements, relocation and/or other work that can accommodate change. The anomalous pandemic response of business closures and/or significant limitations caused disruptions in demand and with it, supply, as well as, in the worst case, business closures. Extended school closures also had a significant impact on the decisions necessary to adapt immediately.
Out of this mess has emerged the possibility that, in the eternal battle between labor and capital, the former may finally gain on the latter. There have been numerous anecdotes. DE's workers are striking, Kaiser Permanente and THC have also been in the news. Vaccine mandates have spurred activism. The data through September, however, seems to suggest that we aren't going back to the 80s anytime soon.
For those of you who can recall (cough, cough), the 1980s was characterized by heavy work stoppages, most notably by the air traffic controllers. The strike ended when President Ronald Reagan declared the strike a threat to national security and ordered everyone back to work, firing those that did not comply. What followed was a period of federal and state policies, frequently supported by judicial decisions that reduced union membership from 22% in the early 1980s to about 11% today.
With union membership at the lows and labor shortages at record highs, labor will have another, probably more powerful tool at its disposal: showing up. With labor in the driver's seat, employers have no choice but to be nice, hence the actual minimum wage appears to be leaving the statutory one in the dust.
Very different from previous labor movements and potentially more powerful.
Let me know what you think.
Emily Evans
Managing Director – Health Policy
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