At this point, there is probably not much of a debate on inflation, but more so on its duration. Economic growth is a different matter. The stagflation crowd will tell you that inflation will slow growth and while they may ultimately be right, in the short run we have some positive growth tailwinds in the US:
- COVID19 daily cases that are more than 50% off their August peak, which will lead to more mobility (travel, dining, socializing, shopping, etc);
- A labor market that had some softness in August and September, but looks poised to re-accelerate through the course of the year given the high demand for jobs (the jobs hard to fill index this week hit a 30-year high); and
- Consumers who, despite inflation, have a high level of savings, lower levels of debt, accelerating wages, inflating home prices, and, if they have one, and an inflating investment portfolio.