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Daily Oil & Gas Perspectives

From the Global Oil and Gas Patch: November 30, 2010


Current positions in the Hedgeye Virtual Portfolio: long LUKOY, long CEO


Chart of the Day……

 

Daily Oil & Gas Perspectives - nov 30 chart


Key Metrics……

 

Daily Oil & Gas Perspectives - nov 30 table


North American Energy News……


Husky to Buy Assets from XOM……Husky Energy (HUSKF ADR) – Canada’s 3rd largest oil producer and refiner – will buy ExxonMobil’s (XOM) oil and gas properties in Alberta and British Columbia for $860M.  The deal will add 21,900 boe/d and 113 Mboe of reserves to Husky’s portfolio.  Husky raised its 2011 capex budget by 20%.  The company will raise $1B through an equity offering.  (Reuters)

 

Hedgeye Energy’s Take: Husky has struggled the last few years to grow through the drill-bit and XOM’s desire to shed non-core and conventional assets fits HUSKF’s immediate needs. Additionally, the company intends to scrap a spin-off of its South China offshore discoveries in Liwan-3 Block and will submit a joint development plan with CNOOC (CEO).


BP to Fund Oil Sands Project……BP (BP) will provide the first $2.5B for the Sunrise oil sands project in northern Alberta, Canada – which it owns a 50% stake in.  They will collaborate with Husky Energy (HUSKF ADR) on the project, which cancelled plans in Southeast Asia to focus on the Canadian sands (see above post).  This is BP’s first major commitment since the Deepwater Horizon disaster.  (Financial Times)

 

Hedgeye Energy’s Take: As BP is forced to sell assets for Macondo GOM liability, oil sands, as a low political and exploratory risk environment, looks increasingly appealing.  Husky and BP have a joint venture: HUSKF works in the Sunrise oil sands and BP contributes its Ohio Toledo Refinery.


Seadrill Increasing Investment……Led by billionaire John Fredriksen, Seadrill (SDRL) has invested $2B in the past two month on oil rigs, leading the jump in orders as safety concerns over BP’s spill has sparked demand for newer, safer platforms.  Deepwater rig companies like Seadrill and DryShips (DRYS) have ordered 20 deep and shallow-water rigs since BP’s disaster, raising global orders by 22%.  Deepwater rig rates have stabilized after a 30% plunge after the Macondo spill and may return to pre-recession levels in three years.  (Bloomberg)

 

Hedgeye Energy’s Take: New rig demand is being driven by the need to retire the majority of the existing aging rig fleet, the need for more complex rigs to operate in deeper waters and more remote and difficult terrain, and an increasing concern for operating rig safety post-Macondo.


In U.S. West, Oil Rush could Exacerbate Gas Glut…… The promise of oil and liquids-rich shale plays in the U.S. West has resulted in a rush of E&Ps to the region, and some analysts believe the production of associated gas could exacerbate regional competition in a market already awash in gas.  (Platts)

 

Hedgeye Energy’s Take: We have voiced this concern in earlier energy notes as a very real issue, that will continue to weigh on natural gas prices into 2012. This is a particular concern in the Rocky Mountain areas that are oversupplied with gas and are hot targets for liquids plays.


World Energy News……


Lukoil Beats Estimates……Russian oil giant Lukoil (LUKOY ADR) reported Q3 net profit of $2.82B vs. Reuters $2.11B.  Revenue and EBITDA also beat estimates and year-ago levels.  The company says it plans to gradually increase their dividend.  The profit increase was due to higher oil prices, a $438M one-off gain, and a large disposal of crude from the company’s inventory, the company said.  (WSJ)

 

Hedgeye Energy’s Take:  We are currently long LUKOY in the Hedgeye Virtual Portfolio. This 87% oil weighted Company is living within its means, with 2010 net cash flows (NCF) after capital spending expected to grow nearly threefold to ~$7.70/ADR, and 2010 expected earnings to soar ~40% to ~$11.80/ADR. Stock trades at an attractive eight times enterprise value to NCF.


Russia Approves XOM Budget……ExxonMobil’s(XOM) production budget in Russia’s offshore Sakhalin 1 field has been approved by the government.  The budget calls for a long-term development until 2055 under which expenditures are to be $95.3B.  The Kremlin monitors the budget strictly because they share in the revenue – an increase in expenditures leads to a cut in the state’s share of revenue.  (Platts)

 

Hedgeye Energy’s Take: Despite rumors that XOM would be replaced as the operator in Sakhalin (30% working interest) due to project cost increases, XOM’s technical expertise is too important to the development of the complex offshore Sakhalin fields and will remain the leader there.  The Kremlin realizes how critical production growth from the Sakhalin Fields has been to Russian domestic production – one of their few fields not reporting a net decline.


Anadarko Finds More Mozambique Gas……Anadarko Petroleum Corp (APC) has made its third gas discovery in offshore Mozambique this year, making the total great enough to warrant an LNG development.  This will be East Africa’s first LNG project.  (Platts)

 

Hedgeye Energy’s Take: Abundant gas resources in offshore East Africa are valuable because the region is an attractive export destination for gas-hungry Asia.

 

Lou Gagliardi

 

Kevin Kaiser


THE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - November 30, 2010

As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 24 points or -1.24% downside to 1173 and 0.78% upside to 1197.  Equity futures are pointing to a weaker opening following a choppy pre market session. Declines in Asia and directionless trading in Europe are contributing to early uncertainty although several macro releases due later in the session may determine whether the market can break out of a narrow trading range.

  • Altera (ALTR) reaffirmed 4Q rev. forecast 
  • Clinical Data (CLDA) said it was selling its genetic and pharmacogenomic testing and biomarker development unit for ~15.4m, plus milestonoes to Transgenomic. 
  • Interactive Brokers (IBKR) declared a special dividend of $1.79-shr
  • J&J Snack Foods (JJSF US) boosted its quarterly dividend to 11.75c-shr, matching BDVD est.
  • Seagate Technology Plc (STX) ended talks to be taken private and authorized the repurchase of as much as $2b of its own stock

 PERFORMANCE

  • One day: Dow (0.36%), S&P (0.14%), Nasdaq (0.37%), Russell (0.11%)
  • Month-to-date: Dow (0.59%), S&P +0.38%, Nasdaq +0.71%, Russell +4.07%
  • Quarter-to-date: Dow +2.45%, S&P +4.08%, Nasdaq +6.61%, Russell +8.25%
  • Year-to-date: Dow +5.99%, S&P +6.52%, Nasdaq +11.28%, Russell +17.04%
  • Sector Performance: Financials +0.57%, Energy +0.52%, Materials +0.47%, Industrials (0.06%), Consumer Staples (0.31%), Healthcare (0.34%), Utilities (0.37%), Tech (0.59%), Consumer Discretionary (0.61%), and Telecom (0.95%)

 EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: -500 (+579)  
  • VOLUME: NYSE - 924.59 (+115.66%)
  • VIX: - 22.22 +13.60% - YTD PERFORMANCE - +2.49%)
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: - 2.24 from 2.07 +&.79%  

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD - 13.67 -0.406 (-2.886%)
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD 0.18% +0.02%  
  • YIELD CURVE - 2.32 from 2.36

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION:

  • CRB: 302.89 +0.58%
  • Oil: 85.73 +2.35% - NEUTRAL
  • COPPER: 376.75 +0.13% - BEARISH
  • GOLD: 1,367.14 +0.52% - BEARISH

CURRENCIES:

  • EURO: 1.3104 -1.04% - NEUTRAL
  • DOLLAR: 80.835 +0.59%  - BULLISH

OVERSEAS MARKETS:

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS:

  • FTSE 100: +0.03%; DAX +0.45%; CAC 40 +0.07%, IBEX +0.09%
  • Major indices are mixed with investors unsure how to react to attempts by EU leaders to stem the threat of contagion within the EU.
  • Questions remain about the likely effectiveness of the permanent European Stabilization Mechanism and debt markets have seen bond spreads widen again. Debt worries have also pushed the euro to a 10-week low against the dollar, Swiss Franc and Japanese Yen.
  • Gains in Basic Resources and Autos are offsetting weakness in financials although there is no clear pattern to trading
  • Portugal's banks may face an "intolerable risk" if the country fails to consolidate its public finances, the Bank of Portugal warned
  • OECD's chief economist said Italy does not face serious problems handling its debt burden in either the short or long term and does not need to do as much as other countries to control its public finances
  • Eurozone Oct Unemployment +10.1% vs cons +10.1%, CPI +1.9% vs cons +1.9%
  • Germany Nov Jobless Total (9K) vs cons (20K), Jobless Rate steady at +7.5%
  • France Oct PPI +0.8% m/m vs consensus +0.4% and prior +0.3%

ASIAN MARKTES:

  • Japan (1.87%); Hang Seng (0.7%); Shanghai Composite (1.6%)
  • Most Asian markets fell today, on worries that the Irish bailout would not stem the European debt crisis.
  • China dragged the region down when it dropped on fears interest rates will soon be raised and credit is going to tighten.
  • South Korea rose on oil refiners and brokerages. But chip makers fell.
  • Miners led Australia down on lower metals prices.
  • China fell as a shortfall of cash in the money market caused a liquidity squeeze in the stock market. Financials lost 2-3%. Small cap drug shares were sold off when the government announced measures to cut the prices of 17 types of medicines.
  • Decliners led advancers, 6-to-1, as Japan fell on Wall Street’s weakness and the euro’s slide against the yen. Europe-linked shares lost 2-3%.
  • Japan October industrial output (1.8%) m/m vs survey (3.3%). October jobless rate 5.1% vs 5.0% survey. October household spending (0.4%) y/y vs survey (0.7%). 

Howard Penney
Managing Director

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - levels and trends

 

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - S P

 

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - VIX

 

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - DOLLAR

 

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - OIL

 

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - GOLD

 

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - COPPER



THE M3: MELCO OPTIONS; SJM; BELLE; HENGUIN OCEAN RESORT; PACKER

The Macau Metro Monitor, November 30th, 2010

 

MELCO INTERNATIONAL GIVES LAWRENCE HO SHARE OPTIONS DUE TO "FINANCIAL SACRIFICE" macaubusiness.com

Melco International Development Limited’s board has granted 51,600,000 share options to the directors of the company; in particuarl, Chairman and CEO Lawrence Ho, the largest shareholder, is granted 38,000,000 share options.  The company stated that Mr. Ho has given financial support and sacrifice for Melco through his waiver of interest on the HK$1.18BN convertible loan notes, his loan of HK$250MM on an unsecured basis, and his decision to accept no salary from Nov 2008 until the company generates profits continuously for at least two years.

 

SJM ADVANCES ON INCLUSION IN MSCI HONG KONG INDEX Bloomberg

SJM gained 10.5% yesterday, the biggest gain since Nov 18.  SJM will be added to the MSCI Hong Kong Index tomorrow.

 

BELLE EYES MACAU PARTNER FOR MANILA BAY PROJECT macaubusiness.com

Belle Corp. is in discussions to team up with a Macau gaming firm for its Manila Bay Project.  Alfredo Benitez, majority owner of Leisure & Resorts World Corp. (LRWC), said he expects to conclude a deal before the end of the year.  LRWC is the local partner for the gaming component of Belle’s IR project.

 

HENGUIN OCEAN RESORT TO OPEN IN 2013 Xinhua News

The RMB 10BN Chime-Long International Ocean Resort will open in 2013 on Henguin Island, which sits directly across from Cotai.  The "Ocean Kingdom" project will be completed in two phases.  The first phase mainly involves the facilities in Fuxiang Bay. The “Ocean Kingdom” will have eight theme zones, each of them consisting of the three main components of amusement designs, performances and animal watching. The dolphin‐themed hotel after completion is set to become the largest ecological‐themed hotel in mainland China.  Angela Leong On Kei announced earlier this year that The Macau Theme Park and Resort Ltd will build a MOP 10.4BN theme park on Cotai.

 

PACKER'S HIGH-ROLLER WARNING Business Spectator

James Packer is concerned that the two S'pore IRs are hurting Crown's VIP business which fell 10% in turnover volume from July to November.


Daily Trading Ranges

20 Proprietary Risk Ranges

Daily Trading Ranges is designed to help you understand where you’re buying and selling within the risk range and help you make better sales at the top end of the range and purchases at the low end.

Old Austerity

“You never see the old austerity. That was the essence of civility; young people hereabouts, unbridled, now just want.”

-Moliere

 

That’s an old quote from a famous French playwright who has long been dead. “Moliere” was Jean-Baptiste Poquelin’s stage name. His urban legend was born when he collapsed and died in the middle of a play in 1673. He was 51 years old.

 

I’ll take some editorial liberty this morning and evolve Moliere’s quote for the Age of American Millenials and Baby Boomers: ‘You’ve never seen austerity. That was the essence of our grandparents; Millenials and their parents, unbridled, now just want.’

 

This is obviously a generalization but, in principle, I can’t imagine that an analyst from outer-space wouldn’t see the hypocrisy in Americans door busting each other on Black Friday for i-Pads at the same time as their Congress fights to keep interest rates on my savings account at zero percent as a result of an alleged depression.

 

Want, want, want. What can I get out of this market? Pretended Patriotism be damned, what’s in this for me?

 

The good and the bad news on this front is that we have leaders in this country who can enforce change. Some of that change is going to be slow. Some of it is going to hurt. Some of it is needed or what you’re seeing in European stock and bond markets is going to be playing at an American “Lifestyle” Center near you in 2011.

 

In proposing a 2-year pay freeze for US Federal employees, President Obama did the right thing yesterday in implementing the first stage of what we have been calling for since July of 2010 (when we were short the US Dollar on reckless government spending). Our Q3 of 2010 Hedgeye Macro Theme was titled “American Austerity” and we think that fiscal conservatism is the only path to US Dollar driven prosperity.

 

The debauching and devaluation experiments of the Big Government Interventionists have been tested and tried. From Japan to Europe and back home again, they have not worked. We need to fix these deficit and debt to GDP ratios, or the global bond market is going to fix us.

 

This morning you are seeing Greece’s stock market test its lows from June 2010 when the European Fiats made a conflicted and compromised promise to the world that Piling more short-term Debt-Upon-Debt was the elixir of life. Apparently 8 centuries of Reinhart & Rogoff data has once again trumped political storytelling. This time isn’t different.

 

Why me? Why now? Shouldn’t this be someone else’s problem?

 

I get that line of thinking, but I also get what wearing a team jersey means  - and, as legend USA Hockey Coach Herb Brooks said:

 

“You're looking for players whose name on the front of the sweater is more important than the one on the back.” 

 

Back to the construct of our intermediate-term global macro forecast…

  1. Growth Slowing
  2. Inflation Accelerating
  3. Interconnected Risk Compounding

We don’t have a choice but to do this now. European and Emerging Bond markets are telling you this and so are American Bond yields:

  1. European Sovereign Debt Yields continue to make a series of higher-highs as concerns push rightly towards Spain and Italy.
  2. Emerging Market Debt just had its worst month in 2 years (NOV down -2.9% on the EMBI Index with Brazilian and Russian weakness).
  3. US Municipal Debt funds just flashed their 2nd consecutive week of outflows, taking the 2-week total to north of $5 BILLION.

Yes, we recognize that a BILLION or a TRILLION dollars isn’t what it was to our grandparents, but these are still big numbers to consider on the margin. Remember, everything in global macro that matters happens on the margin.

 

US Treasury yields are bullish on both our immediate and intermediate-term durations (TRADE and TREND) again this morning as well (yes, that’s a very bad leading indicator for bond funds in your 401k). Despite The Ber-nank’s JapanEuro style political promises, Mr. Global Macro Market is saying hey, dude, remember The Lehman Brother?

 

If you or your parents are baby boomers, you know what a double digit mortgage rate means to your family’s discretionary income. God knows you don’t need a Johnny Come Lately Wall Street “economist” to warn you about that. Maybe it’s time to dig into those Old Austerity boxes of our forefathers this Christmas to remind ourselves that as good as it gets may be gone if we don’t stop ourselves from just want.

 

My immediate term support and resistance levels for the SP500 are now 1173 and 1197, respectively. I’ve maintained my ZERO percent asset allocation to US Equities. I’m still long the US Dollar (UUP) and short the SP500 (SPY) in the Hedgeye Portfolio.

 

Best of luck out there today,

KM

 

Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer

 

Old Austerity - 1


Knock Knock Knocking on Austerity’s Door

Conclusion: Today’s proposed federal employee pay freeze by President Obama is an early step in what we expect will be increasing austerity over the coming years.  American Austerity is bullish for the U.S. dollar.

 

Positions: Long the U.S. Dollar via the etf UUP

 

In early July, we announced our Q3 2010 investment themes, which included Bear Market Macro, Housing Headwinds, and American Austerity.  On the last theme, we presented at the time that due to burgeoning debt and deficit issues domestically, the U.S. would have to implement fiscal austerity measures.   At the same time we noted in one of our slides that some of the PIIGS in Europe were leaving the trough and implementing aggressive austerity issues, which was bullish for the Euro and bearish for the U.S. dollar versus the Euro.

 

In the chart below, we’ve highlighted the U.S. dollar index going back 9-month.  As it shows, the U.S. dollar weakened versus the Euro following our presentation in July and then began aggressively strengthening ahead of and in conjunction with the U.S. midterm elections where the Republicans gained 63 seats in the House of Representatives.  The massive shift in political power was and is an indication that there would be, at least, an attempt at implementing austerity measures domestically.

 

Knock Knock Knocking on Austerity’s Door - 1

 

Earlier today, President Obama introduced a preliminary austerity step as it relates to the pay of federal employees.  Obama is proposing to freeze the pay of federal employees for the next two years.  Not surprisingly, in the current politically-charged environment the response to this pay freeze was mixed at best.  Speaker Designate John Boehner (R-OH) responded with the following:

 

“I welcome President Obama's announcement, and hope he will build on it by embracing much-needed steps to reduce both the size and the cost of government, including the net federal hiring freeze Republicans propose in our Pledge to America. Without a hiring freeze, a pay freeze won't do much to rein in a federal bureaucracy that added hundreds of thousands of employees to its payroll over the last two years while the private sector shed millions of jobs.”

 

The message from Boehner, the defacto leader amongst elected Republican politicians, is clearly that they will be looking for more austerity measures as the new Congress opens in January.

 

The reality is, though, independent groups have analyzed the Republican Pledge to American and it, too, appears to fall short as it relates to reducing the deficit.  In the chart below, which appeared in Reason Magazine online and was put together by the Congressional Budget Office, the deficit is looked at as if the Pledge to America were fully implemented.  In aggregate, while spending does narrow, it is only marginally and federal government revenue is not projected to increase, so the outlook for the deficit, and growing federal debt balance, does not change dramatically.

 

Knock Knock Knocking on Austerity’s Door - 2

 

While the U.S. dollar will continue to strengthen with incremental American Austerity measures as we are seeing proposed today, the dollar will eventually require some dramatic measures to sustain its climb and for us to remain long term bullish of the U.S. dollar.  While their report was widely derided from the left (too much cutting in spending) and from the right (too many implied tax increases), the Presidential Fiscal Commission lead by Alan Simpson and Erskine Bowles presented a number of dramatic proposals to narrow the deficit, which included: 

  • Index the retirement age to longevity -- i.e., increase the retirement age to qualify for Social Security -- to age 69 by 2075;
  • Index Social Security yearly increases to a lower inflation rate, which will generally mean lower cost of living increases and less money per average recipient;
  • The co-chairs suggest capping both government expenditures and revenue at 21% of GDP eventually;
  • In their second plan, they would increase the personal deduction to $15,000, create 3 tax brackets (15, 25 and 35%); repeal or significantly curtail a number of popular tax deductions (including the state and local deduction and the mortgage interest deduction); and eliminate other tax expenditures;
  • They also suggest raising the federal gas tax by 15 cents per gallon;
  •  Eliminate all earmarks;
  • Freeze federal worker wage increases through 2014; eliminate 200,000 federal jobs by 2020; and eliminate 250,000 federal non-defense contractor jobs by 2015; and
  • Reduce procurement by 15 percent, or $20 billion. 

While today’s proposal by President Obama is incremental, for austerity to be long term bullish for the U.S. dollar it will require more dramatic and politically unpopular measures such as the ones outlined above.

 

Daryl G. Jones

Managing Director


Strength At Home

This note was originally published at 8am this morning, November 29, 2010. INVESTOR and RISK MANAGER SUBSCRIBERS have access to the EARLY LOOK (published by 8am every trading day) and PORTFOLIO IDEAS in real-time.

“The strength of a nation derives from the integrity of the home.”

-Confucius

 

Slowly, but surely, the US Dollar is re-capturing some credibility. Yes, we get that credibility amongst the Fiat Fools is a relative measurement. But for now, with the Europeans doing their best to become Japanese, we’re long the US Dollar and we’ll take what we can get.

 

The strength of a nation is not derived from Piling Debt-Upon-Debt. The strength of a nation is not derived from professional politicians funding long term liabilities with short term fiat paper. The strength of a nation derives from the integrity of a country’s fiscal position.

 

I am well aware of the deficit and debt risks in America. I am certainly not saying they have gone away. That said, everything that matters in global macro happens A) on the margin and B) relative to everything else. What global currency prices are telling me now is that a strong currency at home could be more than just an immediate term TRADE.

 

Last week the US Dollar Index closed up +2.37% and +5.84% higher than its November 4th YTD low. That was the 4th consecutive week of gains and all of a sudden the Buck is Breaking Out above both its immediate and intermediate-term TRADE and TREND lines. Critically, what was resistance for US style fiscal conservatism is now support:

  1. TRADE support = $77.89
  2. TREND support = $79.71

As always, trending currency strength needs multiple factors of support - not the least of which are other foreign currencies weakening. When managing foreign currency risk, never underestimate the power of what’s going on in the rest of the currency basket.

 

In the last 3 weeks, the Euro has dominated headline news. This morning, “news” of an Irish bailout comes with the associated political nonsense. France’s central banking Fiat Chef went as far as to suggest that ze package “is very well tailored and will restore competitiveness in Ireland.” He’s got to be kidding me. Ask someone in Ireland how competitive they are feeling this morning.

 

Euros bulls are obviously having trouble swallowing that weekend old French toast. After losing -3.6% of its value last week, the Euro is trading down another -0.61% this morning at $1.32 versus the USD. It’s broken on both our TRADE and TREND durations:

  1. TRADE = $1.38
  2. TREND = $1.33

All the while, there is this large island of compromised Bureaucrats called Japan that is seeing its currency weaken as the #1 driver to economic-hope slows to a screeching halt. For the month of October, Japanese exports were effectively HALVED in term of their sequential (monthly) growth rate (+7.8% OCT versus +14.4% in SEP). As Asia slows, Japan slows… and these are the globally interconnected days of our lives.

 

Euro DOWN + Yen DOWN = US Dollar UP. Cool. Now Americans need to have the political backbone to maintain the integrity of the home currency. Can we do it? Yes, We Can.

 

I’ve got no problem cheering this Buck Breakout on. Yes, it will equate to immediate term US stock volatility, but I’m already proactively prepared for that. I cut my position in US Equities to The Ber-nank’s favorite exposure (ZERO percent) before the current 3% correction in US Equities started to take hold and this morning I have a 64% asset allocation to Cash waiting, as les bulls like to say, on ze sideline, eh.

 

The Volatility Index (VIX) was up a monster +23.2% last week to 22.22, so at least we’ve dropped some of the levered-long kids off at the pool. Volatility is a concurrent measurement of emotion and can quite often be a contrarian indicator of future performance. Naked swimmers may want to bear that in mind as the price momentum tide rolls out.

 

Strong Dollar nips The Ber-nank’s global inflation race in the bud. Strong Dollar also helps drive up short-term interest rates on my hard earned personal and corporate savings accounts. No, no, Mr. Hard Core Leverage Man, that doesn’t help you too. Strong Dollar helps men and women who are debt-free run strong like bull all over you when you are least expecting it. And this is where the true strength of this Nation lives.

 

My immediate term support and resistance levels for the SP500 are now 1173 and 1197, respectively. I remain short the SP500 (SPY) in the Hedgeye Portfolio.

 

Best of luck out there today,

KM

 

Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer

 

Strength At Home - buck


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