The cannabis team along with Hedgeye head of policy, JT Taylor, did an in-depth analysis on the probabilities of Safe or The Cannabis Opportunity and Administration Act passing. We went through all 100 senators individually, and researched past statements they have made regarding both legalization and cannabis banking access. Through these comments, we formulated probabilities for each senator voting yes on Safe or The CAOA. From this, we developed a tracker for both bills to arrive at an expected value of yes votes. The key will be if either bill has the 60 needed to get through the senate. Join us as we will be unveiling our tracker and predictions on this call.
We discussed the current conditions for cannabis reform and our current thinking on a timeline for potential reform in DC. Looking back to January of this year, many Washington handicappers predicted that 2021 and complete Democrat control of Washington would usher in a much-anticipated wave of pro-cannabis laws/legalization, building momentum in prior Congresses as well as in many State legislatures. Fast forward to the fall of 2021, and the realities of razor-thin governing majorities and hyper-partisanship have settled in - not just for cannabis legislation - but also for meaningful legislation across the board.
With October, November and December packed with tens of trillions of dollars of tax, spending, and debt issues looming, prospects for action regarding the cannabis industry have dimmed for 2021 – but a window of opportunity for action may exist in the first half of 2022 for SAFE, STATES, Cannabis Administration and Opportunity Act, MORE.
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