Trendspotting: FBI Releases Official 2020 Crime Report

NewsWire: 10/6/21

• It’s official: Murders in the U.S. rose nearly 30% in 2020. This was by far the biggest single-year increase since the FBI began collecting national crime data in the 1960s. (The New York Times)
• NH: We have written numerous NewsWires on 2020 crime trends. However, we have had to rely on private studies while waiting for official real-time crime data. For homicide, we leaned on the efforts of the Council on Criminal Justice. In its year-end paper, the CCJ estimated that the number of murders in America’s 34 largest cities spiked by +30% YoY. (See “Homicides Spiked in 2020.”)
• Now the FBI has released its official 2020 report. It found that the number of murders indeed increased by +29.4% YoY. That’s approximately 5,000 additional murders and marks the largest YoY percentage increase since official statistics have been reported since 1960. Homicide was clearly an outlier. Overall, all types violent crime rose by +5.6% YoY and property crimes fell by -8.1% YoY.

• Experts still aren't sure why this murder spike occurred. We offered a number of explanations in the above cited NewsWire: the Ferguson effect, increased gun sales, decreased social services, and reduced prison populations. 
• Let's put this violent crime surge into perspective. First, the murder rate remains well below historic highs. In the early '80s, there were approximately 10.0 murders per 100,000 people. In 2020, there were 6.5. Second, there is some evidence from Gallup that the spike in violence afflicted a relatively small share of the population that was already experiencing violence. Gallup reported that the number of people reporting multiple victimization rose even while the median victimization rate fell. (See “Gallup Says Crime Rate Fell in 2020.”)
• Third, the overall crime rate last year actually fell by -4.0%. This is because non-violent crimes vastly outnumber violent crimes--and homicides comprise only a small share of violent crimes.

• What do we know about 2021? According to the CCJ 2021 mid-year report, violent crime is still up and non-violent crime is still down. From January-June, homicides rose +16% YoY, and aggravated assault rose +9% +YoY. As for other crimes, robbery dropped -6% YoY, and residential burglary dropped -9% YoY. These percentage trends are difficult to interpret, however, since crime fell during the early months of 2020. They don't provide much guidance for what will happen in the second half of this year.