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IN THE HOUSE: This week and next have been designated as committee work weeks so there are no upcoming votes in the House. Members have been advised that they will be given 72-hours’ notice if they need to return to Washington for votes.

ON THE SENATE FLOOR: Majority Leader Chuck Schumer plans to hold a procedural vote tomorrow on legislation the House passed on September 29 to suspend the debt ceiling through December 16, 2022.  Republicans have made it clear they will continue to oppose the measure, so the vote count will fall short of the necessary 60 needed to move forward.

DEBT LIMIT: In a letter yesterday to his Democratic colleagues, Schumer said, “we must get a bill to the president’s desk dealing with the debt limit by the end of the week…We do not have the luxury of waiting until October 18th,” the deadline set by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen for congressional action.  Minority Leader Mitch McConnell responded to Schumer’s letter with his own letter to the president saying it is up to Democrats to address the debt ceiling on their own, without Republican support.  

McConnell wants Democrats to use the reconciliation process to raise the debt limit, and last week the Senate parliamentarian gave the green light to this option, advising that if lawmakers were to pass a revised budget resolution and then consider a separate debt ceiling bill, they would not jeopardize the reconciliation process currently being used for the $3.5 trillion proposal. 

Democrats, though, are adamant that they won’t use reconciliation to address the debt ceiling. Republicans are equally dug in that they won’t vote for legislation that suspends or raises the debt limit. This impasse, then, has led to increased speculation that Senate Democrats may try to use the “nuclear option” to change the filibuster rules for this one issue. Under the nuclear option, a change to the filibuster rules could be approved by a simple majority. While a number of Democrats have voiced their opposition to an overall change in the filibuster rules, Schumer would likely make the argument that this action is only for one specific purpose – the debt limit – and is necessary because of Republican opposition to addressing the matter. Whether this will be the path that Democrats take is still unknown as no one truly knows yet how this impasse will be resolved, but at the end of the day, our thinking is that the Democrats will blink in order to avoid an economic calamity on their watch.

RECONCILIATION: After the House failed to vote on the bipartisan infrastructure bill last week, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi called for lawmakers to act on both the infrastructure bill and a scaled-back reconciliation measure by October 31. That date is the new deadline for Congress to pass a reauthorization of highway programs, following enactment on October 1 of a one-month extension of those programs. A five-year extension of surface transportation programs is included in the bipartisan bill that awaits a House vote.  

Many feel that the Halloween deadline for agreement on reconciliation could prove to be on the optimistic side as much work needs to be done to scale back both the revenue and spending sides of the $3.5 trillion measure Democrats have been pursuing. One major wrinkle is that there still is no agreement on what the topline number will be. In the July 28 memo that saw the light of day last week, Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV) told Leader Schumer that his topline was $1.5 trillion. President Joe Biden, though, is hoping he can convince Manchin to accept a figure in the range of $1.9 trillion to $2.3 trillion and we believe progressives are coming around to the lower number and will accept a compromise in short order.

COMMITTEE ACTION OF NOTE:  

  • Tuesday, October 5:
    • Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee business meeting to consider the nominations of Brian Eddie Nelson to be Under Secretary for Terrorism and Financial Crimes, Elizabeth Rosenberg to be Assistant Secretary for Terrorist Financing, and Alexia Marie Gabrielle Latortue and Graham Scott Steele both to be an Assistant Secretary, all of the Department of the Treasury; Julia Ruth Gordon, David Uejio, and Solomon Jeffrey Greene each to be an Assistant Secretary of Housing and Urban Development, and Alan F. Estevez to be Under Secretary for Industry and Security and Thea D. Rozman Kendler to be an Assistant Secretary both of the Department of Commerce; to be immediately followed by a hearing to examine Afghanistan's future, focusing on assessing the national security, humanitarian, and economic implications of the Taliban takeover.
    • Senate Commerce, Science, and Transportation Subcommittee on Consumer Protection, Product Safety, and Data Security hearing to examine protecting kids online, focusing on testimony from a Facebook whistleblower.
    • House Financial Services Committee Hearing: Oversight of the Securities and Exchange Commission: Putting Investors and Market Integrity First.
    • House Foreign Affairs hearing: Afghanistan 2001-2021: Evaluating the Withdrawal and U.S. Policies - Part II. 
  • Wednesday, October 6:
    • Senate Commerce, Science, and Transportation Committee hearing to examine enhancing data security.
    • House Transportation and Infrastructure Subcommittee on Water Resources and Environment hearing: “Emerging Contaminants, Forever Chemicals, and More: Challenges to Water Quality, Public Health, and Communities.”
    • Senate Energy and Natural Resources Subcommittee on Water and Power hearing to examine the status and management of drought in the western United States. 
  • Thursday, October 7:
    • House Oversight and Reform Committee hearing: “Assessing the Election ‘Audit’ in Arizona and Threats to American Democracy.”
    • Senate Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions Committee hearing to examine the nominations of Lisa M. Gomez and Jose Javier Rodriguez both to be an Assistant Secretary of Labor.
    • Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee hearing to examine the nominations of Matthew S. Axelrod to be an Assistant Secretary of Commerce, Alanna McCargo to be President of the Government National Mortgage Association, and James Arthur Jemison II and Mark Colon both to be an Assistant Secretary, all of the Department of Housing and Urban Development.
    • Senate Commerce, Science, and Transportation Subcommittee on Communication, Media, and Broadband hearing to examine the state of telehealth, focusing on removing barriers to access and improving patient outcomes.