The GOP Keeps Gaining Among Latinos. NewsWire

NewsWire: 10/5/21

• A WSJ op-ed asks: “Are Latino Voters Tiptoeing Right?” The results of recent state and local elections suggest that the GOP may be capturing growing shares of Latinos, particularly men. (The Wall Street Journal)
• NH: Last spring, we pointed out that Republicans made gains with Latino voters in the 2020 election. More recent election results suggest that this trend is continuing.
• The most prominent example is the California recall election. According to CNN exit polls, 24% of the voters in that election were Latino. Though most of them (60%) opposed the recall, that margin is down four points from the share of Latinos Gov. Gavin Newsom won in 2018. And the decline was bigger among Latino men: 61% voted for Newsom originally, but only 55% opposed the recall.
• Meanwhile, in June, Javier Villalobos was elected to be the first Republican mayor of McAllen, Texas, which is 85% Latino and the largest city in Hidalgo County. In 2016, Hillary Clinton won Hidalgo County by a whopping 41 percentage points. But in 2020, Joe Biden won by only 17 points. Texas’s Rio Grande Valley, where Hidalgo County is located, was one of the notable Latino-heavy areas where Trump improved his share of the vote in 2020 despite losing the election.
• To be sure, these are only two data points. California’s recall election also can’t be compared directly to a normal election. But they do come from two major states, and in Texas in particular, any indicators that Latino voters are increasingly voting GOP should set off alarm bells for Democrats. In an earlier op-ed, the WSJ speculated that the shift among Latino voters was due more to Democrats moving leftward than to any outreach from Republicans. In appealing to their most progressive voters, Democrats risk losing the moderates in their camp. 
• Usually, "moderates" refers to high-income suburban whites. But it's a bigger problem. As we explained in our previous piece, many Latinos--particularly men--lean conservative on social issues. (See “Latino Voters Are Up for Grabs.”) They're more conservative than white Democrats on issues like abortion, gender roles, and even political correctness. Low-income whites and Latinos also have the largest gender gap of all racial/ethnic groups in college enrollment, with women's enrollment rates at least 10 percentage points higher than men's. (See "Are Young Men Giving Up on College?")
• White conservative voters and Latino voters are often treated as if they come from different worlds. But in truth, the men have a lot in common--and it's increasingly showing up in how they vote.