Tall tales are being woven to support a narrative that supply chain woes are just bottlenecks; China's energy crisis is the result of compliance with new climate focused regulations; and Brexit is to blame for empty tanks at the Petrol stations. These things may be true in part, but the facile manner in which they trip off the tongues of talking heads is a little sus, as the kids would say. Could there not be other factors that are perhaps more complicated and, also, frightfully more durable for the "inflation is transitory crowd?"
Not to put too fine a point on it, but we just spent a year and a half scrambling supply and demand of virtually everything across the globe. Responding to behavior change has been made more difficult by that fact that a lot of people died. How many and where will be the subject of numerous white papers for years to come. Developed nations in Europe and North America (save Canada - clean living pays off) are reporting mortality rates between ~100 - 200 deaths per 100k population. These are plausible numbers given their varying but generally modern health care systems and standard or above standard living conditions. Most European nations and the U.S. have either centralized health care systems or previously established mortality reporting that adds credence to their tally.
It stretches credulity to accept that Vietnam, a nation of 97M experienced just 19k deaths. India's 32.5 deaths per 100k also seems implausible. In fairness to these nations, it is unlikely they are trying to disguise anything. They may simply not have the tracking and reporting systems nations in Europe and North America have long used to track disease.
Nonetheless, if low death rates with top trade partners is offered up as proof the supply chain snaps back once the "bottlenecks" clear, a healthy dose of skepticism is in order.
Call with questions.
Emily Evans
Managing Director – Health Policy
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