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November still on track for ~40% growth.

Based on the gross gaming revenues below through 11/21/10, we’ve upped our November forecast of total gaming  revenues including slots slightly to HK$16.2-16.7 billion.  This represents 37-41% growth over November of 2009, up from our previous 35-39% projection after the first two weeks.  As always, we take into account the number of weekend and weekdays and any special events in our computations.

As expected, Macau was heavily populated over the weekend with the Grand Prix (GP), but it appears that the GP dragged VIP volumes down a bit while Mass revenue may have felt a boost from the influx of race fans.  Traffic was chaotic and getting around town was extremely difficult, although a change to the alternative road system that was put in place worked far better than in previous years.

In terms of market share, LVS and MGM share grew in the past week, mostly at the expense of MPEL.  Hold is usually responsible for week to week changes like this.  Relative to recent months, LVS remains well below its 19-20% average while MGM and MPEL are tracking well ahead of historical levels.