Below is a chart and brief excerpt from today's Early Look written by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough.
The Bond Market, of course, still sees this for what it is - #Quad3 Stagflation. That’s when the short-end of the yield curve goes up and the long end (real growth expectations which include the inflation subtracted from nominal growth) goes down:
A) UST 2yr Yield has gone up +7 basis points in the last 3 months
So C) the 10s minus 2s spread on the UST Yield Curve is -16 basis points flatter in the last 3 months. That’s right on time from when the US economy started Phase Transitioning from Peak Cycle (i.e. #Quad2 in Q2) to #Quad3 Stagflation.