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The Call @ Hedgeye | August 10, 2022

Below is a chart and brief excerpt from today's Early Look written by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough. 

The Bond Market, of course, still sees this for what it is - #Quad3 Stagflation. That’s when the short-end of the yield curve goes up and the long end (real growth expectations which include the inflation subtracted from nominal growth) goes down:

A) UST 2yr Yield has gone up +7 basis points in the last 3 months
B) UST 10yr Yield has gone down -9 basis points in the last 3 months …

So C) the 10s minus 2s spread on the UST Yield Curve is -16 basis points flatter in the last 3 months. That’s right on time from when the US economy started Phase Transitioning from Peak Cycle (i.e. #Quad2 in Q2) to #Quad3 Stagflation.

CHART OF THE DAY: See It For What It Is - 9 13 2021 7 37 06 AM