Good Morning, Keep an eye out for the updated MicroQuads and Estimate Revision Trend data this morning, and send us an email if you have any questions/feedback or would like to see/discuss any of the data - .
KEY CALL OUT
The 2022 FY estimate trend for our current Health Care universe had its first down week this week. Delta Variant is likely the key point of pressure particularly as several companies guided cautiously for 2H21. We're seeing the strong relationship between vaccination rates and COVID burden hold up, comparing Alabama (least) with Vermont (most) has been a good barometer. The jobs data this week should show sequential weakness, but how much will be key. Anecdotally, ambulatory in person care has held up. We continue to look for a sustained retreat in Delta Variant heading into the end of 3Q21.
POSITION MONITOR
NEWS & POSITION MONITOR/WATCHLIST COMPANY UPDATES
Telehealth - K Health expands its mental health offering with Trusst acquisition (Mobile Health News). This deal was announced last week. We think it adds friction on the D2C/health care consumer side of the equation for TDOC. “K Health works in the primary care space. Its services combine a free symptom checker with text-based telehealth and virtual care. The company uses an artificial intelligence service to help guide users through their health concerns. Users are able to tap into a live doctor through a paid service. Patients can access the services one time or through a subscription service.”
COVID-19/Flu - Hospitals prepare to avoid 'twindemic' of COVID-19, flu (Modern Healthcare). We will have to see if behavior change, as a result of delta, will help suppress the flu again (testing the thinking that masks are super efficacious w/ regard to the flu – if we had the link for reference here, we’d share it). It sounds like provider are planning to administer both COVID-19 vaccines (or boosters) at the same time as the flu vaccine this year; however, “Maintaining adequate staffing to handle an influx of patients remains a big challenge. Also, the time it will take to administer both vaccines will likely mean clinics can vaccinated fewer people.”
ONEM - Can a Payment System Overhaul Save Primary Care? - We need to align payments, services, and quality before it's too late (MedPage). The Authors have an agenda: “We propose a radically different approach: a patient-centered payment system that would pay adequately for each of the three major types of primary care services -- wellness care, acute care, and chronic disease management -- and assure appropriate, high-quality care for every patient based on their individual needs.” But it’s a quick, relevant read given our tracking of the primary care providers' growth, and ONEM seems to have the right pieces of the puzzle/model to be successful given how we see trends unfolding.
MICROQUADS*
As a reminder, if you have questions about the MicroQuad process, please try to find ~20 minutes to watch our Dec 30, 2020 call replay: Process & Utility of the Hedgeye Health Care #MicroQuads - CLICK HERE for event details (includes video link and materials link).
CALENDAR
All data available upon request. Please reach out to with any feedback or inquiries.
Have a great day out there!
Thomas Tobin
Managing Director
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Justin Venneri
Director, Primary Research
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William McMahon
Analyst
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*Please note, not all Position Monitor names make it into the MicroQuad output - most likely due to a lack of sufficient historical trading and estimate data.
