“One measure of leadership is the caliber of people who choose to follow you.”
~ Dennis Peer
Last night, at Carmen Anthony’s in New Haven, CT, I had the pleasure and the privilege to share a celebratory holiday dinner with a US financial services firm that is both hiring and growing – Research Edge, LLC. Taking a few steps back and some time to breathe has paid handsome dividends in 2008, and last night reminded me how thankful I am to have the opportunity to work alongside this caliber of people.
Unfortunately, every great “Trend” in this business gets interrupted by negative “Trades”, and metaphorically at least, my alarm clock going off this morning was an abrupt reminder of as much. The first thing I do every morning is go through my Asian and European research, and it was plain ugly. Our friends who call it “Chindia” woke up to the reality that India is a different place than China again (don’t you hate when that happens) – India printed its first negative year-over-year industrial production growth number in 15 years. Meanwhile the Eurozone printed a horrific industrial production growth number of -5.3% year-over-year.
You see, there is no real “growth” in Western Europe right now, and that’s a real problem. That’s primarily why I have stayed away from Europe and paired myself off by being long Germany versus our short the UK position. Sometimes people forget that the Euro is barely 10-years old (her birthday is January 1st). Most of the time, people forget that this is the first time this new EU team has been forced to face the facts of an auto-correlating regional downturn. As these European countries try to figure out what to do with one another, I am happy to do nothing – sometimes that’s the best thing an investor can do.
Apparently Bernie Madoff wasn’t doing nothing. If you haven’t heard this man’s name before, you will within the next 24 hours. Like the artist formerly known as the Governor of Illinois, ole Bernie isn’t wearing the Santa suit and integrity pants at his team’s holiday party.
Rather than mince words, or go off on one of my riffs about transparency, accountability and trust, I’ll leave it to Bernie to describe what he was doing with $50B large – he called it a “giant ponzi scheme.”
So my feet are on the floor early this morning, and after investing in the USA over the course of the last few weeks, I have to deal with these losers still having an impact on your life’s savings. There’s nowhere for me to run, and if there was, I wouldn’t anyway. The only way to fix this crisis of the US Financial system’s credibility, is to take the ball this morning, and run it right up the middle.
Whether you’re working for General Motors or Bank of America this morning, it’s all one and the same. You have a confidence problem because the said leadership of your company has given you no reason to trust them. If they are going to get paid to “wear the C” on their jerseys, they are going to be held accountable for all of their actions – that’s The New Reality, and I have signed up to face-off against their principles.
Principles matter, and so does the hard earned money you have hopefully saved. We have been in cash for the better part of this year, but now we are starting to invest in America because the opportunity to change all of this nonsense has come. The US government is going to do what they always do – they are going to cut interest rates to zero and devalue your currency. When there is no rate of return and my savings account is for sale, I am not going to sit on my hands and do nothing.
Why has the US Dollar gotten smoked this week? Re-read this morning’s headlines – we have billionaires running “giant ponzi schemes” and a futures market that trades on “bailout” expectations. It’s embarrassing, and this is what happens to currencies when people lose faith in those running the country. Ask the Russians or Zimbabweans how this has been working out for them.
Am I early in taking my asset allocation to US Equities to 24% this morning? You tell me. I get called a lot of things in this business – but one of those things is not being late. The SP500 is down -44% since I was “too bearish” to work for some of this country’s investment savants, and now I get to clean up their mess. I signed up for this, and after last night’s dinner with my new team, I am ready to face The New Reality head on.
My downside target in the SP500 is 814, I’ll be buying more, patiently, from last night’s close to that price. Buy low. That’s where American confidence deserves to be this morning. On the margin, we are going to do our best to improve that.
Have a great weekend,
SPY-S&P 500 Depository Receipts – CME front month futures sank this morning, trading as low as 832.7 before 7AM on news that the auto industry bailout failed to win Senate approval.
DIA –DIAMONDS Trust Series – CBOT front month futures sank this morning, trading as low as 8,250 before 7AM on news that the auto industry bailout failed to win Senate approval.
XLV - Health Care Select Sector SPDR –Johnson & Johnson (XLV:14.83% ) announced that the Israeli Antitrust Authority has approved JNJ’s acquisition of Omrix Biopharmaceuticals, Inc.
OIL - iPath ETN Crude Oil –Font month NYMEX Light Sweet Crude contracts declined below 45 in trading before 7 AM this morning.
EWG – iShares Germany –The DAX is down this morning 193.59 points, or 4.06%, at 4573.61, led by fears that the global recession may deepen following the rejection of the $14 billion bailout package for US carmakers by the Senate. Daimler AG (EWG: 4.29%), the world’s largest truckmaker, agreed to buy 10% of Russian commercial vehicle manufacturer giant OAO KamAZ.
EWH –iShares Hong Kong –The Hang Seng closed down today at 14758.39, or 5.48%.
FXI –iShares China – Retail sales numbers slid in China at the slowest pace in nine months. Sales slowed to 20.8% in November Y/Y after gaining 22% in October Y/Y. The CSI300 closed down today to 1960.38, or 4.20%. The central banks of China, Korea and Japan announced this week an agreement to ensure currency stability in Asia.
EWU – iShares United Kingdom –The FTSE100 is trading down this morning at 4249.42., or 3.17%. HBOS Plc, the UK bank that agreed to a takeover by Lloyds TSB Group, said this year’s charge for bad loans rose to $7.5 billion.
FXY – CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust –The dollar slumped to 88.53 Yen, the lowest level since August 2, 1995, before trading at 90.32 as of 9am in London.
EWY– iShares South Korea – South Korea and Japan will increase existing Won-Yen arrangements to $20 billion from $3 billlion.
IFN The India Fund-India’s industrial production fell for the first time in 15 years, with output at factories, utilities and mines dropping 0.4% in October Y/Y after a 5.45% gain in September Y/Y.
“One measure of leadership is the caliber of people who choose to follow you.”
In April of this year, I argued that CKR’s then current level of capital spending was unsustainable. In contrast to many other restaurant companies, CKR was accelerating, not slowing, new unit growth. My primary concerns stemmed from the company’s decision to increase its unit growth significantly while margins were still under severe pressure, which typically results in lower returns for the entire enterprise. I pointed out that CKR’s aggressive capital spending over the past 2 years had not led to incremental returns for shareholders and said that management needed to change its long-term unit growth strategy in order to reverse declining returns.
On May 3, I posted my concerns about the level of G&A spending at CKR, highlighting the fact that although the company’s system-wide store count had declined by 8% since 2002, G&A per store had grown nearly 40%.
CKR dismissed these concerns.
On June 17, Ramius LLC sent a letter to Andrew Puzder, CEO of CKR, in which it called for the company to 1.) Significantly reduce operating costs, and 2.) Shrink the capital spending plan to improve free cash flow. Ramius’ public criticism of the company’s industry-high G&A costs as a percentage of total revenues and need to cut capital spending apparently struck a chord with management as the company has since made changes to its capital plans. Whatever the motivation, CKR now seems to be on the right track from a sustainability standpoint.
CKR has reduced both its new unit growth and capital spending targets for FY10-FY11 two times since Ramius sent its letter in June (the first reduction coming 2 days later at CKR’s annual meeting). In June, the company lowered its new unit growth plans by 35 units and lowered it again today by another 27 units. Combined with those unit growth reductions, the company has reduced its capital spending plans by $83 million and now expects to spend $193 million in FY10-FY11 ($100M-$110 in FY10 and $80M-$90M in FY11). For reference, that compares to $133 million in FY08 and an expected $120-$130 in capital spending in FY09 (FY10-FY11 guidance represents an expected 10%-20% YOY decline in both FY10 and FY11). A majority of the capital spending reductions are coming out of CKR’s discretionary spending, or from the cut back in new company openings as the company plans to only open 6 new company-operated Hardee’s units in both FY10 and FY11 (from prior guidance of 15) and 22 Carl’s Jr. units in both years (down from 40).
Management went on to highlight that it still has room to make further reductions if need be as nearly 40% of its capital plan is tied to discretionary items which could be further reduced or eliminated. Additionally, the company said it could cut back on its remodel program (although part of the company’s non-discretionary spending plan) on short notice if the environment worsens and deems it necessary. So, if the company needed to completely eliminate both its discretionary spending and remodel plans, it has the flexibility to further reduce its FY10-FY11 capital spending plan to $53.9 million from its current $193 million. Let’s just say it did not sound like the same management team that dismissed my concerns earlier this year, which again is a good thing! CKR is focused on using its increased free cash flow to either pay down debt or build liquidity so it stands ready to accelerate its growth again if high-return sites become available.
Also, post the Ramius letter, management allocates a significant amount of time on its earnings call to going over the company’s recent G&A reductions. G&A is down 2% YTD. Although CKR’s G&A costs are moving in the right direction, its G&A per store is about $45,600, still significantly above the FY04 level of $33,100 that Ramius highlighted in its letter. Mr. Puzder has stated that G&A spending levels in FY04 could not sustain the brand. At that level, he said the company was in “survival mode” and that such spending could not be maintained without deteriorating the brand. Regardless, there is still room for G&A to come down, particularly with the company’s ongoing refranchising efforts.
Tuesday, 7 Oct 2008 - DineEquity, Inc. Declares Quarterly Dividend
Monday, 27 Oct 2008 - DineEquity, Inc. Agrees To Sell 66 Applebee's Locations
Friday, 5 Dec 2008 - Southeastern Asset files 13D Reports in DineEquity
Thursday, 11 Dec 2008 DineEquity, Inc. Announces Suspension of Common Dividend
The company declared a dividend in October and then suspended it in early December. During the intervening time period sales for the casual dining industry slowed significantly. The dividend announcement speaks directly to the liquidity issues the company is facing.
There is no reason that DIN should be trading at a premium to any of its peers in the restaurant industry, and yet, the company is trading at 8.7x on a NTM EV/EBITDA basis relative to its casual dining peers at 5.5x.
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CPI data from China released today came in at +2.4%. This was a positive surprise for The New Reality where Chinese bulls are getting paid.
Lower commodity costs now provide the Central Bank the much needed room to make further rate cuts. The rate of food cost inflation in particular has come down dramatically from the stratospheric levels at the beginning of the year , declining from 23% in February to under 6% in November –the lowest level since January of 2007, when everyone loved China.
Interestingly, Chinese retail sales were +21% y/y in November, only 1% less than October, indicating that the pace of China’s growing consumer culture is continuing to show resilience in the face of the global meltdown.
We think that domestic consumption will provide continued strength to the Chinese economy on a relative basis (unlike their former “BRIC” cohorts India and Russia). With more money to put to work, more room to cut rates and more new consumers coming into the market they are definitely sitting at the head of the table.
We are long the Chinese equity market via the FXI ETF.
Let’s analyze today’s intraday SP500 selloff versus the fear you should see in the VIX – there was none – nada – zero. The VIX is still down -3% here on the day, and worrying the dizzied bears like fresh fluorescent spray of bear mace.
The chart below outlines both the double top and the recent momentum breakdown in the VIX. At 62.22, I’ll change alongside those facts. The good news, if you’re long, is that those aren’t facts yet – the VIX is at 54, the bears are worried, and they should be. If the VIX breaks and closes below 48.86, I think you’ll be staring a SP500 bull of 1,036 right in the eyes.
The total percentage of successful long and short trading signals since the inception of Real-Time Alerts in August of 2008.
LONG SIGNALS 80.33%
SHORT SIGNALS 78.51%