Below is a chart and brief excerpt from today's Early Look written by Director of Research Daryl Jones.
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Later this morning we get July’s U.S. CPI reading. This is last of the CPI comparisons that are below pre-pandemic levels. CPI in July 2020 also increased +0.5% from June 2020, so from a comp perspective the probability is reasonable that we get an above consensus and high, sticky report for CPI. Shelter, at 32% of the reading, will likely be the river card (highlighted in the Chart of the Day) as it came in at only +2.6% Y/Y last month and remains well below its pre-pandemic average of between 3.2 – 3.5%. The NFIB Small Business report from yesterday certainly under scored the expectation of inflation among small business owners. On the topic of prices, small business are indicating that actual prices (past 3 months) and planned price increases (next 3 months) are at the highest levels since the 1980s. |
