Americans growing pessimistic (KR)
A new Gallup poll showed a striking shift in consumer attitudes about COVID-19. More Americans are now saying the pandemic is getting worse than a month ago. 45% say the situation is getting worse compared to 40% saying it is getting better. In June, 89% said it was getting better than 3% saying it was getting worse. 41% now say healthy people should stay home as much as possible to avoid spreading the virus rather than living normally, compared to 35% in June. The July survey was the first time since January that more Americans have been pessimistic than optimistic. The most pessimistic survey results were in November. 83% of Americans now expect disruptions related to the pandemic to last at least through the end of the year or longer. In June, nearly half Americans expected the disruptions to last only a few more weeks or months. 29% of Americans are now very or somewhat concerned about getting the virus, up from 17% in June. The largest increase of those who are concerned is among the vaccinated respondents. 33% of vaccinated respondents are now concerned, up from 18% in June, while only 20% of unvaccinated respondents are concerned, up from 15% in June. 19% of respondents say they are completely or mostly isolating themselves from people outside their household, which is only up 1% from last month. There was also no meaningful change from respondents who said they are avoiding public places such as stores or restaurants (28%), small gatherings (20%), large crowds (40%), or traveling by plane, bus, or train (37%). In addition, 60% of respondents said they wore a face mask in public in the last week, down from 68% in June and 79% in May.
Grocery demand improves (ACI)
As seen in the chart below, CPG demand was 3% lower YOY for the week ended July 25, improving 2% from the previous week. Since the end of May, CPG demand has been in a tight range of down -5% to -3% YOY. Edible demand was 3% lower compared to the prior year, as was non-edible demand. Beverage alcohol sales were down 8% YOY, the weakest large edible category. Produce demand was 4% lower YOY. Fresh produce is a good indicator of at-home meal consumptions since it is not saved. The strongest department was deli +11%, which had one of the easiest comparisons. Grocery stocks outperformed yesterday with the increased concerns that an uptick in COVID-19 cases will lead to further restrictions.
Texas on-premise alcohol ticks down (BUD)
Texas reports its alcoholic beverages sales tax receipts monthly. In July, alcoholic beverage receipts increased 20% YOY. Compared to June, receipts decreased 4.3%. July still represents a higher level of tax receipts in any month in 2019, 2020, and 2021 except June, as seen in the following chart. In Texas, bars were shut down in mid-March and allowed to re-open on May 22. In late June, bars were shut down again, then re-open again in October by county. Bars were also allowed to reclassify as restaurants since June as long as food sales exceeded alcohol sales.
