Below is a chart and brief excerpt from today's Early Look written by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough.

What’s next? Again, it’s not what the Fed says at tomorrow’s FOMC meeting (although the probability that they make a mistake there is not zero). It’s what the data (and markets that front-run that data) do before they speak at Jackson Hole…

Pre yesterday’s ramp in Copper and Cattle prices, here’s where The Quads had Hedgeye’s proprietary INFLATION nowcasts:

A) Q3 of 2021 = 4.69% headline CPI
B) Q4 of 2021 = 4.55% headline CPI

Observation: those are 4% numbers with upwards biases towards 5% and beyond if our “Rent” models are right (if I front-run our models and plug in 3.6% for Shelter vs. its recent print of 2.6%, we’re pushing 5% reported inflation heading into Q4 of 2021).

If Powell (or anyone at the Fed who had this completely wrong) was honest with The People, they’d remind you that they were in “wait and see on inflation, if and when it gets to 2%”… then they called it “transitory” at +3%... and now they have a problem.

CHART OF THE DAY: Sticky-High Inflation Risk Rising  - 7 27 2021 7 25 02 AM