Weekly U.I. Claims (07/22) | "On Script"

Initial Claims missed estimates, rising +51K to the highest level since May at 419K.  Total UI Beneficiaries, meanwhile, fell -1.26M to a new Pandemic low at 12.57M.

As always, it’s difficult to take a convicted view of any one week in isolation so while the increase in Initial Claims is notable we’ll defer making an sweeping statements on the trajectory of the underlying trend.

What is also (probably more) notable is the decline in PUA and PEUC Claims. The decline is wholly unsurprising, but it’s emergence and progression is still worth profiling.

Recall:

1. States began termination of pandemic related enhanced/extended benefits on 6/12 with a progressive build in roll-off through the end of July.
2. Roughly 3 million individuals face benefit loss over the June-July period with the bulk of that concentrated in late June.
3. The PUA and PEUC data are lagged by two weeks so the latest data reflects Claims through July 3rd.

Below is the temporal and geographic mapping of Claims from our 3Q Macro Themes call. Again, the data is evolving largely as expected:

• Total Claimants fell -1.26Mn in the latest week with PUA and PEUC roll-off representing 89.4% of that decline.
• Total PEUC + PUA Claims have fallen -1.93Mn over the past 3 weeks since early benefit termination began.
• Expect more of the same over the coming weeks as benefit expiration and organic roll-off of Continuing Claims continues to define the trend in Total UI Beneficiaries.