Below is a chart and brief excerpt from today's Early Look written by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough.
So why not #Quad4? Well, it is #Quad4, in Japan!
Since a proper Hedgeye #Quad4 “call” is what plenty would and should panic about. You’d have to see the USD breakout > 93.28 and both Commodities and Oil break @Hedgeye TREND support too.
Whether it is TRENDING (not transitory) inflation or Sticky Stagflation pending into the fall and Q4 of 2021 (i.e. Phase Transitioning from #Quad2 to #Quad3), one should ask themselves if we already had a mini-Quad4 market scare?
Another simple way to answer “Why Not #Quad4?” is just that. In a proper lose-your-freaking-mind-and-money #Quad4, 2yr UST Yields are breaking down as High Yield Spreads blow out!
None of these ROC (rate of change) or back-tested #Quad4 realities will make people “feel” any better about #Quad4 macro market days like we had on Friday.
But variability happens… and we want to play The Game based on our #process, not our feelings.