U.K. frozen food and beverage alcohol demand drops (NOMD)
Overall, CPG demand fell 6% YOY for the week ended June 26, 4% points weaker than the prior week. Frozen food demand fell 18% YOY and 12% points from the prior week. Beverage alcohol sales fell 15% YOY, down 8% points from the prior week. Most of the pandemic control measures in England are set to expire on July 19. A final decision is expected to be made on July 12th after considering the data. According to the British government, over 86% of adults have received at least one dose of the COVID-19 vaccine, and nearly 65% are fully vaccinated.
British consumers have not adjusted much of their total food spending as pandemic restrictions have only recently loosened, but their purchasing behavior has begun to change. The shift away from off-premise appears more pronounced than in the U.S. despite being later in the reopening process. The UK is Nomad Food's largest country by sales, representing 31% of overall sales (before the Fortenova frozen food acquisition).
Truck rates flat in June (KR)
Cass Information Systems reported in the Cass Shipments Index for May that the month was the second-best ever. Only May of 2018 was better. On a seasonally adjusted basis, shipments increased 5.9% over April and 35.3% over May 2020. According to the American Trucking Association (ATA), truck freight tonnage declined 0.7% in May from April, which was 0.6% below March. The ATA Chief Economist said the lack of supply of trucks is holding back the tonnage. The International Roadcheck inspection event held from April 29 to May 6 also caused many operators to schedule time off during the inspection period. Load board records were set for monthly average rates on the DAT One despite a 6% decline in posting volumes. For every van truck posted on the board, there were 6.1 loads posted. Refrigerated loads were even greater, with 13 posted for each truck posting. Flatbed load postings were an eyepopping 97.1 loads for every truck posted. Many truckers do not post their truck while looking for loads, so the indicator has some caveats. According to DAT, in June, the national average for van freight was $2.67 per mile, down 1 cent from May but up 47.5% YOY. Higher freight rates are a headwind for nearly every consumer staples company.
French fries are good for your blood pressure? (LW)
A new study by researchers at Purdue University said that baked French fries might better control blood pressure than taking certain supplements. Potatoes contain more natural potassium than supplements. The researchers said increasing dietary potassium from foods like baked and boiled potatoes helps to reduce sodium retention and drops systolic blood pressure compared to the “typical American” diet. While the significant emphasis is often placed on reducing dietary sodium intakes to better control for blood pressure and cardiovascular disease risk, that's only half of the story," says Connie Weaver, Ph.D., the primary investigator. "Potassium plays just as an important role, and perhaps the ratio of potassium to sodium is most important in the context of the entire food matrix, as the potato meal resulted in a greater reduction of sodium retention than the potassium supplement alone." Potatoes comprise roughly 20% of the vegetable intake in the American diet. July 13th is National French Fry-day. Many QSR chains will have French fry promotions for July 13th, including McDonald’s, giving out free fries for customers who join its new rewards program. Restaurants generally fry their fries, so consumers will have to bake them at home to get any purported blood pressure benefits. Still, we think that research reports should help demand.
