Overview
Following our note to cover AmericanWell (AMWL) at $11.79/share, the stock has regained some of its losses prompting a number of questions from clients concerning a potential data catalyst for the recovery.
2Q21 Tracker Update, Plan and Provider Losses
When we moved AMWL to the short bench we thought downside was limited in the short term and there was not a clear catalyst in the short term, although with earnings expected in the next few weeks, that is changing. From our tracker update through 2Q21, we continue to see incremental customer churn that has not been called out by management in recent public appearances. The most notable potential health system loss this quarter was Houston Methodist, an approximately $5 billion dollar system in Texas. While there were offsetting health system additions (Northern Light, Maine Health Services), the net revenue impact is likely negative given the module adoption for new clients is generally lower than it is for clients with a longer tenure.
Our tracker also identified Blue Cross Blue Shield (BCBS) Massachusetts as a potential loss of a major health plan. Given that the tracker didn't identify any of AMWL's other BCBS clients (including AZ, LA, MI, MO, RI, SC), this could be a real, and significant, loss. We received push back during our original Black Book around the potential for a sizable deal with UNH to establish a virtual primary care plan. Our experts refuted both the likelihood of this kind of deal being widely adopted and the bloated PMPM that some analysts were suggesting. The loss of BCBS in any region would further confirm the lack of runway lack of customer urgency to add telemedicine functionality in the current post-pandemic environment.
AMG Looks weak according to Claims Trend
We've also updated our claims based analysis for AMG. The trend has settled on a week over week basis, but 2Q21 has again trended lower sequentially. At a minimum, a sequential increase in revenue appears optimistic given the backdrop of slowing AMG volume and the loss of some significant customer.
Claims Data - 2Q21 Update
Provider Tracker - 2Q21 Update
Provider Tracker - 1Q21 Update
Slides from the Black Book
All data available upon request. Please reach out to with any inquiries.
Thomas Tobin
Managing Director
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