Join our Hedgeye Demography analyst Neil Howe on a monthly research odyssey, as we dive into the latest news that loomed largest on his radar screen the past month.
Last month we saw controversy over China’s census, explored the true death count of Covid-19, and walked viewers through a deck on the long-term US economic and fiscal outlook.
Here are my top insights from May 2021.
Last week, our sector presented a long-term (30-year) economic and fiscal outlook of the US. Topics included everything from GDP and labor force participation rates to federal deficits and the national debt.
Demography Q&A (5/06)
At the beginning of the month, we hosted a live Q&A session to answer listener questions sent during our 2020 Demography Review of the US. We discussed everything from “Long Covid” to China’s role in the fentanyl trade.
Is China on track to report its first population decline in six decades? The country’s decennial census results have been mysteriously delayed, which insiders say reflects a dreaded population dip—one that the government has denied.
A new model of excess deaths during the pandemic estimates that the worldwide excess death toll has been between 7 and 12 million. This would mean that the official numbers represent only one-half to one-quarter of the true death toll.
The U.S. government may end up recovering only 51% to 63% of defaulted student loan amounts. This would mean that taxpayers could be on the hook to make up for a $500 billion shortfall.
TOP PODCAST EPISODE
Demography Unplugged: Interview With Chuck Todd (4/25)
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Managing Director, Demography
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ABOUT NEIL HOWE
Neil Howe is a renowned authority on generations and social change in America. An acclaimed bestselling author and speaker, he is the nation's leading thinker on today's generations—who they are, what motivates them, and how they will shape America's future.
A historian, economist, and demographer, Howe is also a recognized authority on global aging, long-term fiscal policy, and migration. He is a senior associate to the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, D.C., where he helps direct the CSIS Global Aging Initiative.
Howe has written over a dozen books on generations, demographic change, and fiscal policy, many of them with William Strauss. Howe and Strauss' first book, Generations is a history of America told as a sequence of generational biographies. Vice President Al Gore called it "the most stimulating book on American history that I have ever read" and sent a copy to every member of Congress. Newt Gingrich called it "an intellectual tour de force." Of their book, The Fourth Turning, The Boston Globe wrote, "If Howe and Strauss are right, they will take their place among the great American prophets."
Howe and Strauss originally coined the term "Millennial Generation" in 1991, and wrote the pioneering book on this generation, Millennials Rising. His work has been featured frequently in the media, including USA Today, CNN, the New York Times, and CBS' 60 Minutes.
Previously, with Peter G. Peterson, Howe co-authored On Borrowed Time, a pioneering call for budgetary reform and The Graying of the Great Powers with Richard Jackson.
Howe received his B.A. at U.C. Berkeley and later earned graduate degrees in economics and history from Yale University.