Signatera claims continue to climb
The American Society of Clinical Oncology will convene next week. Beyond the data presentations, ASCO provides great marketing opportunity to highlight new and existing indications. Signatera use is still very early in its life cycle, but we already see use outside of colorectal cancer with the percentage of claims with a C18 diagnosis code (colorectal cancer) making up ~60% of total volume. We've conducted multiple interviews with colorectal cancer surgeons, as well as other specialties, and we've routinely heard positive comments about SIgnatera. One specific point we've heard repeated is that Signatera is specific to an individual patient, or tumor informed. At this early stage of the adoption curve for liquid biopsy products, the use of a predetermined panel, such as Guardant Reveal and others, creates a window of doubt that a negative result is actually a true negative. For a new product in a new category, we think this will provide a slight advantage, but more important will be more market entrants, including Guardant (GH), marketing to more physicians will expand the pie for everyone. It's worth noting that Signatera is replacing entrenched and old standards of care. Abstract #552 which was released this week (and will be presented at ASCO) showed Signatera can be useful in ovarian cancer compared to the blood marker CA-125, which was discovered 40 years ago in 1981.
We think Natera has several tailwinds which will drive estimates higher (MicroQuad 2) with a post pandemic rebound in cancer care, as well as an accelerating adoption curve for SIgnatera. We continue to see a path to $150+ for NTRA.
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Thomas Tobin
Managing Director
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