Trendspotting: U.S. Jews Under 30 More Orthodox Than Their Parents

NewsWire: 5/25/21

• According to a new Pew study, Millennial Jews are much more likely to be Orthodox than their parents or grandparents. The other pole—Jews of no religion—is growing among the young as well, while the moderate center is shrinking. (The Washington Post)
• NH: Fully 17% of U.S. Jews under 30 are Orthodox. This falls to 11% among Jews ages 30-49, 7% among Jews ages 50-64, and 3% among Jews age 65 and older. When Pew last conducted this study in 2013, 11% of Jews under 30 were Orthodox.
• As the share of Orthodox Jews grows proportionally among the young, its opposite pole--Jews "of no religion"--is growing as well. Among Jews under 30, this is the most common affiliation. Fully 41% identify as Jews of no religion (people who identify with Judaism ethnically or culturally, but not religiously). This share declines moving down the age ladder. Older Jews are more likely than younger Jews to identify with either Reform or Conservative Judaism.

• Why is the share of young Orthodox Jews growing? As we’ve pointed out before, rigorous religious practice is strongly correlated with fertility. (See “Nations Labor to Raise Their Birthrates.”) Orthodox Jews have very high birthrates and comparatively lower ages of marriage and first births. Pew’s study found that the average number of children born per Orthodox adult is 3.3. Among non-Orthodox Jews, it’s 1.4. Among “Jews of no religion," it’s 1.0. We’re also seeing the payoff of a decades-old effort by Orthodox leaders to invest in a young Orthodox community by building parochial schools.
• The persistently high fertility rate of the Orthodox has been visible in Israel for several decades. In 2018, the fertility rate among Jewish Israeli women exceeded that of Arab Israeli women for the first time. The fertility rate of Arab Israelis has decreased markedly, while fertility among Jewish Israelis has climbed.

• In general, higher affluence is associated with lower fertility. But Israel has long been the exception to this rule. Its TFR, 3.1, is by far the highest of any developed country.
• These numbers call to mind the thesis of Eric Kaufman’s book Shall the Religious Inherit the Earth? In most religious faiths, including Protestantism, Catholicism, and Islam, the most orthodox members have fertility rates that are nearly double those of the least orthodox members. In Judaism, the difference is even wider, resulting in the striking shift we see here.
• A few years ago, Pew conducted a massive research project on the future of the global religious landscape. It projected that, due mainly to these belief-differences in fertility, the share of the world that is non-religious will decline in the coming decades. Currently, the non-religious account for 16% of the world's population, but only 10% of the births. Christians make up 31% of the population and 33% of the births. Muslims make up 24% of the population and 31% of the births. You do the math.
• By 2035, the number of babies born to Muslims is expected to surpass the number of babies born to Christians, with the birth gap between the two groups approaching 6 million by the 2050s and 2060s. By 2055-2060, more than seven in ten babies will be born to either Muslims or Christians.
• When Pew published its study, it surveyed Americans to find out their opinion about the future of the religious "nones." Nearly two-thirds of U.S. adults (62%) said they expect the "none" share of the world's population would expand. Less than one in six (15%) said it would shrink. But that's why you listen to demographers, right? They see world a little differently.