China’s Census Highlights Low TFR, Slow Growth. NewsWire

NewsWire: 5/21/21

• China’s census results are in: The population grew very slightly in 2020. The total count was 1.41 billion, which means that the population only increased by 72 million people since 2010. (The Wall Street Journal)
• NH: After much hubbub, China’s decennial census numbers are finally here. In the days leading up to the release, we made plenty of predictions for what the data would show (see “China’s Population: A Mystery Wrapped in a Riddle” – Pt. 1 and Pt. 2).
• I covered some of the results on my last podcast. But they’re worth repeating here, since we were right on target. If anything, we were too optimistic. We estimated that in 2020 China would see roughly 12.5 million births. The actual figure was 12.0 million, down 18% from 14.65 million births the year before.

• We also estimated that the total fertility rate (TFR) would fall somewhere between 1.25 and 1.3. The actual figure? 1.3. This dismal figure puts China closer to Japan and Singapore territory. It's below the 1.5 threshold that independent Chinese demographer He Yafu identifies as the upper edge of "fertility trap" territory.
• In all, China’s population rose by a mere 5.38% over the past decade, or by 72 million people. That means the average annual population growth rate was 0.53%, which is the slowest growth rate for China since at least the 1960s. The share of the population that is 65+ also rose rapidly, from 8.9% in 2010 to 13.5% in 2020.
• But not so fast. This week brought a new twist. In a press conference, the National Bureau of Statistics just announced that it will be revising upwards the country’s birth data from 2011 to 2019. The number of births will increase, on average, by nearly a million each year, or by 6% over the nine-year period. Officials offered two examples: 2016 births will be revised to 18.83 million (+970,000 from the previous figure), and 2017 births to 17.65 million (+420,000). 
• Why do this? Well, it’s a neat solution to the dilemma China faces: how to face up to the clear drop in births by 2020 yet also keep China's total population above its recently celebrated 1.4 billion mark. It can do that by claiming that, mid-decade, births were even higher than previously reported even if they plunged near the decade's end. 
• To be sure, the revised numbers haven’t been finalized. All we have to go on are these two data points from this press conference. But for now, China is set to “discover” it has around 9 million extra children under age 10.
• Keep in mind, however, that the 2020 Census birth number of 12.0 million is not being changed. This means that the recent crash in China's TFR is even steeper than we had earlier estimated--and that China's "fourth wave" is definitively over. Given 2020's very low TFR, the likely impact of the pandemic on 2021, and the much smaller size of the parent-age cohorts now entering their late 20s, all indications point to the population peaking earlier than anticipated.
• Last year, most demographers still believed that China's population would not begin to decline until the late 2020s. Now, according to Global Times, the consensus is "that although China reported population growth in 2020, the general declining trend was inevitable, and China's population is likely to start to decline as early as 2022." Because nothing appears in Global Times without the approval of the CPC, this admission suggests that the PRC is no longer trying to hide the obvious.