Like a weatherman measuring changes in barometric pressure to predict evolving weather patterns... what if you could more accurately forecast future market returns?
Think of financial markets as the weather, and your asset allocation as the clothes you wear. An intelligent portfolio constructed around what the market is going to do in the future is like knowing it’s supposed to rain today and grabbing your umbrella.
In both portfolio construction and weather-related attire, nobody likes surprises.
Our Growth, Inflation, Policy (GIP) model is “the hallmark of our fundamental resear
ch process. This model is based on our back-testing of historical financial market data which shows the year-over-year rate of change of growth and inflation are the most consequential factors to track for predicting future financial market return.
The GIP model is a critical tool for making asset allocation decisions. This regime-based framework separates the rate of change in growth and inflation into four quadrants:
• Growth accelerating, Inflation slowing (QUAD 1);
• Growth accelerating, Inflation accelerating (QUAD 2);
• Growth slowing, Inflation accelerating (QUAD 3);
• Growth slowing, Inflation slowing (QUAD 4)
After building this base of knowledge, we help investors make asset allocation selections based on our historical back-testing of the different asset classes that perform best in each of the four quadrants.
The results of those back-tests – across all asset classes from equities to bonds to currencies and commodities – are below:
We’ve also simplified the output of those results in the chart below identifying the broad sector and style factors that outperform and underperform in each of the Quads.
In QUAD 1, for instance, where growth is accelerating and inflation is slowing, that has historically been really positive for both equity and credit data across all sectors of the U.S. economy.
In this quadrant, the top U.S. equity sector overweights are Tech (XLK), Consumer Discretionary (XLY) and Industrials (XLI). The top underweights are Utilities (XLU), Consumer Staples (XLP) and Energy (XLE). From a style factor perspective, long Momentum, High Beta and Growth stocks work best in Quad 1.
Meanwhile, when you look at QUAD 4, in which growth and inflation are slowing at the same time, that has historically been quite negative for both equities and credit with the sector overweights and underweights almost exactly opposite.
The overweights in Quad 4 include Healthcare (XLV), Consumer Staples (XLP) and REITs (VNQ). The top underweights are Tech (XLK), Energy (XLE) and Industrials (XLI). From a style factor perspective, long High Dividend Yield, Low Beta, Minimum Volatility and Quality stocks work best in Quad 4.
Now, within each of the quadrants, there’s risk to be managed day-to-day. We fundamentally believe that there’s no set-it-and-forget-it portfolio that weathers every financial market storm. So, while our GIP model is an excellent starting point, we have a number of risk management overlays to help you optimize portfolio decision making.
• Our GIP model is run for the top 50 economies around the globe to identify investable pivots worldwide.
• Our quantitative Risk Range model helps investors capture “behavioral alpha,” basically this quantitatively measures the price, volume and volatility of all publicly-traded asset classes to identify “bullish” and “bearish” market trends.
• We measure and map the changes in Wall Street consensus positioning using CFTC “Commitments of Traders” report and underlying Volatility data embedded in futures and options markets.
All of this Macro intelligence is used to identify the most important investable risks and opportunities. It helps investors optimize asset allocations based on their own liquidity needs and time preferences.
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