CHART OF THE DAY: The Shanghai Comp Is NOT Getting You Paid

If you’re asking me when The Cycle peaks, that’s reasonable. There’s nothing mid about anything today other than me being in my mid-forties and getting fatter.

“But, but, China is slowing into #Quad3 Stagflation, so why would you keep buying Commodities?”

A: because the Dollar is down and we’re going to electrify America with trillions in infrastructure deficit spending, bro.

Yep, the China question I often get is a good one because:

A) It’s based on our #Quad3 Stagflation nowcast for China … and
B) If you’re using the 2011 Supply/Demand (post China entering the WTO) model, that was The Question back then

After learning how linear the assumptions in my Yale Econ 101 class were, I never start with supply and demand models (please don’t cancel). The fractal PRICE, VOLUME, and VOLATILITY models I use are non-linear!

What’s also interesting about the relative Bear Nowcast for China is that:

A) It’s not getting you paid right now (China’s Shanghai Comp is +3% in the last month)
B) That’s because the Shanghai Comp broke out to Bullish @Hedgeye TRADE last week

Imagine all I was using was my Quads and no TRADE or TREND Signals? Haha

Like Gold, Chinese Stocks (FXI) signaled immediate-term TRADE oversold prior to their recent short-term pop. That’s where I covered-SOME … so that I can re-short more of both once they get to the top-end of my Risk Ranges.