In 2014, we were sick and tired of hearing narrative after narrative on "Old Wall" TV. We created The Macro Show for everyday investors looking for a better way to access real-time investable market analysis.
Track trends in stocks, commodities, currencies, and interest rates across the globe every morning before the market opens with former hedge fund veterans, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough and Director of Research Daryl Jones.
To help keep you Macro Aware, we've included video highlights from this week's key themes from The Macro Show. We’ve also transcribed brief excerpts to speed up your idea generation process.
Enjoy and have a great weekend.
commodities front-run Interest rates
"Was it really surprising? The U.S. 10-Year Treasury is front-ran by commodities. Commodities front-run the headline CPI number, and then you get the move in interest rates. This is continuing to happen as people continue to be surprised (to the upside) on inflation."
"The CRB Index (the equivalent of the S&P 500 for commodities) hit a new cycle high yesterday. It's been going up nearly every day. This shouldn't surprise you; what's been happening in copper, corn, lumber, or the oil price for that matter. They have been inflating. If you get the direction of inflation right, you've had the direction of commodities right, and you get the direction of bond yields right."
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Bullish signals in Germany
"People that own story stock don't even know what global bond yields are; remember, Macro Awareness is core to why you pay us. Be aware of what's going on in the morning; rate's up doesn't mean the U.S. 10-year is up 1 or 2 basis points. The German 10-Year Bund Yield hit a new cycle high; how many people know that's hitting a new high this morning?"
"The signal on both German bond yields and German equities is bullish on both my Trade and Trend durations (and obviously bullish on my long-term Tail duration as well). It's called a Bullish formation when the signal across all three of my durations is bullish."
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Earnings & More
"Earnings season, with 438 companies in already, have reported aggregate earnings growth of +47%. That's fantastic. That's a huge acceleration. It's not mid-cycle, that's B.S. It's super early-cycle."
"What are you looking at this morning? Pay attention to the opportunities that you see, not whatever the macro tourists are seeing."