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STRIP BACCARAT TOOK A BIG BREATHER IN SEPTEMBER

The implied September baccarat volume looks pretty weak based on MGM’s pre-announced results.

 

 

We think September Strip Baccarat volume may fall 50-60% after posting 40% and 87% YoY increase in July and August, respectively.  That would bring total baccarat volume growth for the quarter to 26-29%.  Good, but not as good as everyone thought on Friday when the blockbuster August numbers were released by the Nevada Gaming Commission.

 

STRIP BACCARAT TOOK A BIG BREATHER IN SEPTEMBER - mgm2

 

With its pre-announcement yesterday, MGM showed a baccarat volume decline at its wholly owned properties (so excluding Aria) of 6%.  That is a very poor showing.  It is our understanding that MGM’s baccarat market share was 35-40% and over 50% including Aria.  Applying some simple math to MGM’s reported baccarat volume and the Nevada state figures leads us to the conclusion that September baccarat volume may be down 50-60%, even if MGM’s market share fell 10 percentage points.  Of course, if they maintained share, then September Strip baccarat volume would have fallen even more.

 

We don’t want to marginalize the baccarat business.  After all, this segment carried the Las Vegas Strip through the downturn and volumes continued to grow this year.  However, relative to expectations, investors have to be disappointed with the full quarter volumes after Friday.  We will need to reevaluate our model projections for WYNN and LVS again after raising our Las Vegas estimates following Friday’s Nevada release.


R3: JCP, COH, SHLD, PERY, and Fila

R3: REQUIRED RETAIL READING

October 13, 2010

 

The JCP/Ackman chess match remains front and center today while Fila becomes the first brand to market with toning apparel just in time for the holidays.

 

RESEARCH ANECDOTES

 

- In the “really?” category, we note that teen pop star Justin Beiber inked a deal to release a collection of 6 nail polishes.  Perhaps this is the product that Wal-Mart needs to get traffic moving in a positive direction.  The line is set to launch at WMT in December, followed by a rollout into Target and Sears early next year.

 

- Coach tops the list of the second annual Digital IQ Index of luxury brands, skyrocketing from the middle of the pack last year to the top.  The index measures the “digital competence” of luxury brands.  Rounding out the top five in order are: Ralph Lauren, Louis Vuitton, Gucci, and Hugo Boss. 

 

- According to the Gallup Well-Being Index, 6 in 10 Americans are either overweight or obese.  Approximately 36% fall into the overweight category while 26.6% are obese.  The good news here is that the obesity rate has been essentially unchanged for two quarters. 

 

 

OUR TAKE ON OVERNIGHT NEWS 

 

JCP Hires Goldman Sachs To Play Defense Against Bill Ackman - J.C. Penney Co. Inc. has taken a page from the Target Corp. playbook and hired Goldman Sachs to help play defense against activist investor William Ackman, sources said. Ackman plans to “engage in discussions” with Penney’s management and other stakeholders concerning the firm’s “business, assets, capitalization, financial condition, operations, governance, management, strategy and future plans.” Little is known of Ackman’s plans. <wwd.com/business-news>

Hedgeye Retail’s Take:  Given that Target ended up holding its own against Ackman, the move to hire the same defensive player probably makes a ton of sense.  In the meantime, this will unfortunately become a costly battle that shareholders are likely going to pay for.

 

Levi Strauss Sales, Expenses Grow - Net income at Levi Strauss & Co. dropped by 30.8% in the third quarter while sales improved as the company increased spending on new stores and advertising its Levi’s and Dockers brands. Total net revenue was up 6.6%, driven by the strong performance of the Levi’s brand in the Americas, the company’s acquisition of 73 outlet stores operated by a third party in 2009, and the expansion of the company’s retail store base, offset by wholesale declines in Europe and Japan. Although Europe did grow 6% cc, the 9% FX impact erased all growth. SG&A increased 15.5% primarily due to the spending on new stores and marketing. <wwd.com/business-news>

Hedgeye Retail’s Take:  While the topline was supported by such investments, we note that expenses and not increasing costs were the key factor weighing on the bottom line.  This is likely to change as cotton remains at elevated levels.  Recall that Levi’s and Dockers are in the midst of rebranding efforts.

   

Sears Opens More In-Store Toy Shops - Sears is opening 79 additional Toy Shops within its stores, including in new markets Minneapolis, Philadelphia, San Diego and Washington, D.C. The expansion is based on a successful pilot launch last year. The year-round in-store Sears' Toy Shops will carry offerings from Fisher-Price, LeapFrog, Hasbro, Bakugan and VTech, as well as specialty items. The latest openings will bring the Toy Shop count to 99. The shops measure approximately 1,500 to 1,800 square feet. <licensemag.com>

Hedgeye Retail’s Take:  Sears continues on its trend of creating a mall within a mall environment.  However, toys appear to be heading for a competitive holiday following Toys R Us’ intention to open 600 pop up stores as well as Target and Wal-Mart’s intentions to be very sharp on pricing.

 

PERY Extends Nike License - Perry Ellis International has extended its license agreement with Nike, Inc. in which Perry Ellis will continue to design, produce, manufacture and distribute select apparel and swim equipment within North America under the Nike Swim brand through 2014.  <sportsonesource.com/>

Hedgeye Retail’s Take:   Status quo here with the swim license which means much more to PERY than it does to NKE.

 

Fila USA to Sell Women's Body Toning Workout Apparel - Fila USA announced the release of the Fila Body Toning System (BTS), a collection of body toning workout apparel for the women's fitness industry. The Body Toning System will first deliver to Dick's Sporting Goods stores and athletic specialty stores in early October. <sportsonesource.com>

Hedgeye Retail’s Take: While late to the toning shoe game, Fila becomes the first on shelves with a complimentary apparel product. With women now frequenting the athletic channel with increased frequency, retailers are likely to quickly adopt (or at least try) early toning apparel offerings in an effort to up-sell and retain new incremental female customers. Next in line is Reebok Easy Tone apparel in stores come November just in time for the holidays.

 

Fast-Fashion Flocks to India - Fast-fashion and contemporary brand retailers are flocking to India to tap into the nation’s rapidly growing economy and a market comprised of millions of young people. The latest is Forever 21, which opened its first store in India at the Ambience Mall here late last month, with a long line of customers waiting outside, impatient for the doors to be thrown open. Forever 21 joins the likes of Diesel, Zara, Ecko Unltd. and Italy’s OVS Industry. Other brands that made their entry into India earlier this year include Vero Moda and Seven For All Mankind. Over the last few years, Promod, Calvin Klein and S. Oliver have been establishing their stake in the metro cities. Meanwhile, well-entrenched brands like Van Heusen still see room for substantial expansion. What comes next? The entry of Gap is awaited, particularly in light of its plans to launch in China later this year. The frequency of purchase is highest among younger consumers. More than 81% of India’s population is under 45, and these consumers are the most fashion conscious. <wwd.com/retail-news>

Hedgeye Retail’s Take: Clearly an attractive market for retailers, but the key force tempering foreign direct investment continues to be Indian reform. Expect more aggressive entry by retailers as the government opens its gates further.

 

Russian Footwear Demand Recovers, 83% of Imported Shoes From China - Although footwear consumption in Russia is relatively smaller than those in European Union and the US, demand has been recovering, with China supplying 83% of imported shoes to the country. According to a recent survey conducted by Discovery Research Group, the average annual shoes consumption is 1.4 pairs for Russian, whereas 4.5 pairs for other European and 6.5 pairs for American. The imports in 2009 grew 22.3% to 222.1 million pairs from a year earlier. The average price for imported a pair of shoes was US$10. In terms of value, shoes consumption in the first quarter of 2010 increased 15% to 20%. Industry experts said that shoe demand in Russia is recovering, with prices also being on the rise. <fashionnetasia.com>

Hedgeye Retail’s Take: A population half the size of the U.S., but footwear consumption only ~20% of the American consumer suggests a capacity for increased demand. With the country’s GDP running +5% and an ASP of only $10 expect footwear demand trends to closely follow that of oil prices in the near-to-intermediate term.


THE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - October 13, 2010

As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 22 points or -1.26% downside to 1155 and 0.62% upside to 1177. Equity futures are trading above fair value in a continuation of yesterday's bounce which saw the S&P 500 close higher after recovering from an intraday low. Risk appetite was helped by the release of Fed minutes which reiterated the FOMC's resolve to take action if the economic recovery remained sluggish.

  • Adtran (ADTN) reported 3Q EPS 50c vs est. 43c
  • Chevron (CVX) sees 3Q earnings lower than 2Q on weaker dollar, drilling ban, lower crude prices
  • CSX (CSX) reported 3Q EPS $1.08 vs est. $1.04
  • Intel (INTC) forecast 4Q rev. $11.0b-$11.8b, vs est. $11.3b
  • Linear Technology (LLTC) sees 2Q rev. unch. to down 4% Q/Q vs est. 1% drop to $384.8m
  • MGM Resorts International (MGM) plans 40.9m stock offering; biggest shareholder will reduce stake

 PERFORMANCE

  • One day: Dow +0.09%, S&P +0.38%, Nasdaq +0.65%, Russell 2000 +0.37%
  • Month/Quarter-to-date: Dow +2.15%, S&P +2.50%, Nasdaq +2.08%, Russell +2.94%.
  • Year-to-date: Dow +5.68%, S&P +4.90%, Nasdaq +6.56%, Russell +11.30%
  • SECTOR PERFORMANCE: Financials +1.12%, Tech +0.60%, Materials +0.26%, Consumer Spls +0.25%, Healthcare +0.23%, Consumer Disc +0.23%, Industrials (0.06%), Energy (0.15%), Utilities (0.41%)

 EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: +357 (+39)
  • VOLUME: NYSE - 923.14 (+11.5%)  
  • MARKET LEADING/LAGGING STOCKS YESTERDAY: King Pharma +39.41%, Salesforce +5.57% and Starbucks +4.42%/Electronic Arts -5.83%, Fastenal -4.84% and Gamestop -2.80%.
  • VIX: 18.96 -8.45% - YTD PERFORMANCE: (-12.54%)
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 1.49 from 1.69 -11.74%

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: 17.75 0.304 (1.743%)
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.13% +0.01%
  • YIELD CURVE: 2.07 from 2.06

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION:

  • CRB: 297.83 +0.49%
  • Oil: 81.67 +1.22% - BULLISH
  • COPPER: 378.95 unch - OVERBOUGHT
  • GOLD: 1,347.10 -0.47 - BULLISH

CURRENCIES:

  • EURO: 1.3867 -0.15% - BULLISH
  • DOLLAR: 77.363 -0.10%  - BEARISH

OVERSEAS MARKETS:

 

Europe

  • FTSE 100: +1.13%; DAX +1.43%; CAC 40 +1.41%
  • Major indices are broadly higher led by strong gains across the Basic Resource, Oil & Gas and Technology sectors as investors digest the latest FOMC minutes which appeared to go further than most analysts had expected.
  • Financials reacted positively although Barclay's shares are weak on talk it may be considering a rights issue
  • Standard Chartered has announced plans to raise £3.3B in a rights issue ahead of the introduction of Basel III's capital rules
  • Eurozone Aug Industrial Production 7.9% y/y vs cons 7.5%
  • France Sep Final CPI +1.8% vs prelim +1.8%
  • UK Aug ILO unemployment rate 7.7% vs cons 7.8%  

 

Asian

  • Nikkei +0.16%; Hang Seng +1.45%; Shanghai Composite +0.70%
  • Markets closed mixed in the wake of yesterday's FOMC's minutes and INTC's earnings.
  • The Nikkei closed up as the dollar firmed slightly vs the yen bouying exporters, and Japan August factory orders were announced to be +10.1% m/m vs expectations of +4.5%.
  • Hang Seng reversed losses to close up +1.45% after property stocks fell following the government's announcement it will temporarily cease to grant residency to foreigners who invest in the city
  • China reported a Sep trade surplus of $16.9B, down from $20.0B in Aug 
Howard Penney
Managing Director

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - levels and trends

 

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - S P

 

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - VIX

 

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - DOLLAR

 

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - OIL

 

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - GOLD

 

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - COPPER



Daily Trading Ranges

20 Proprietary Risk Ranges

Daily Trading Ranges is designed to help you understand where you’re buying and selling within the risk range and help you make better sales at the top end of the range and purchases at the low end.

Lecturing Myself On Shorting

“Not realizing that giving someone no map is much, much better than giving him a wrong map.”

-Nassim Taleb

 

 

Lecturing Myself On Shorting - LEcturing on Flying Birds

 

 

I’m almost a third of the way through reviewing Pablo Triana’s “Lecturing Birds On Flying.” Published in 2009, this is a thinkers book. It made it to the top of my reading pile as I’m keen on reading anything that offers an alternative solution to the academic dogma that’s plaguing the American Economic System.

 

The aforementioned quote came from Nassim Taleb’s 7-page foreword. If you think what I write is aggressive, you need to read this book. Taleb’s foreword was easily the most aggressive I’ve ever read. His advice: “You need to shame members, humiliate them. Make fun of these charlatans.”

 

I don’t like charlatans. I don’t like cowards. And I certainly don’t like taking people’s word for things unless I have a basis to trust their work. I’d be a hypocrite not to criticize myself inasmuch as I will Ben Bernanke or Pablo Triana. My goal in life isn’t to defend my answers. It’s to find the right ones.

 

Given that I’m still waiting on my entry point to re-short this SP500, this morning I am going to lecture myself on shorting. In Chapter 2, “The Financial Economics Fiefdom”, Triana sufficiently proves that some of the said economic savants who are lecturing our B-school students need a wake-up call of real-life experience. So, I’ll offer my own. If you want to hit competing strategies in the mouth, you have to be accountable to what’s coming out of your own.

 

To be clear, no one said being transparent and accountable in this business is easy. That said, unlike Taleb and Triana, I actually show the score associated with my implementation of risk management solutions each and every day. We need more practitioners to get in the game on this front. God knows we aren’t going to boil the ocean of academic dogma on our own.

 

So, back to lecturing myself on shorting, let’s start with some very basic modern day risk management questions. If you want to lecture people on managing “Black Swan” or “tail risk”, shouldn’t you know how to profitably short a country, currency, or commodity? How about shorting stocks, governments, or the professional politicians that back them?

 

I’ll humbly submit that if you could, you would. So let’s strap the accountability pants on and take a walk down that path. Other than an internet connection and an online brokerage account (or a hedge fund), what else do you need to get started?

  1. Money
  2. Macro
  3. Mucker

Ok. Ok. Now you’re either laughing or calling me names like the guys on the Princeton hockey team used to do. Either way, my teammates and I don’t really care what you call me. The Hedgeye Portfolio has an 83.6% winning percentage on the short side since inception (2008). Who Dat Hedgeye?

 

In all seriousness, in these globally interconnected times of government sponsored volatility, I don’t think you should be buying, selling, shorting, or covering anything unless you have a top-down global macro process combined with bottom-up research and risk management tools.

 

Ok. Now that I’ve laced up my skates with some Money, Macro, and Mucker, I’m ready to play God (Chapter 1 of Lecturing Birds On Flying is called “Playing God”). In terms of some pre-game prep, here are some highlights from Triana’s first chapter that any student of this game can appreciate:

 

1.  Citing Emanuel Derman (former Goldman exec and currently professor at Columbia who has his PhD in physics), Triana makes an invaluable point about discipline and hard work: “It’s not that physics is better, but rather that finance is harder. In physics you are playing against God and He doesn’t change His laws very often. In finance, you are playing against God’s creatures, agents who value assets based on their ephemeral opinions.”

 

2.  Again, borrowing another great quote from Derman, Triana hammers home a critical point about the behavioral side of this game that you need to internalize before you get out there on the proverbial ice: “When you take on other people, you are pretending you can comprehend other pretenders, a much more difficult task.”

 

3.  Finally, on page 22, Pablo brings some Harvard heat by using a solid quote about economic forecasting from John Kenneth Galbraith: “The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology respectable.”

 

Now playing against the said gods of Perceived Wisdom is tough. My mother-in-law was the first to remind me and my newly found feathered-gray hockey hairs about that. But God Himself is tough. And if you want to play this game for real, you better be tough too - especially when both critics and consensus tell you that you can’t do something that they can’t do.

 

 

Lecturing Myself On Shorting - yale

 

 

After all, I believe it was Galbraith who also said that, “we have two classes of forecasters: those who don’t know – and those who don’t know what they don’t know.” Keep being your own harshest critic out there and you’ll be just fine. Read, write, and spend as much time with the people you love as you can. Short selling and managing risk is all about doing. As the game changes you need to change alongside it.  

 

I’ve been waiting and watching for my re-entry point on the short side of the SP500 since early September. My immediate term support and resistance levels for the SP500 are now 1155 and 1177, respectively. I answer to no man on when to pull the trigger. I’m accountable to the score. I have my own map.

 

Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer

 


MGM: THE PRETTY SISTER AND THE UGLY DUCKLING

A 50% move in the stock and this is all we get?  Macau is finally delivering and the Borgata multiple was nice but where is the evidence of a big Las Vegas recovery? Certainly not in CityCenter.

 

 

Our big picture thoughts haven’t changed much since our post last night, “MGM: SO IT WAS A DEAL ROADSHOW”.  However, we wanted to add some additional observations and details.  Given the run in the stock, the looming cash flow issues in 2011, and the negotiations to restructure their City Center debt, management was smart to strike while the iron was hot with an equity deal.

 

Vegas was only in line with expectations.  Where was the blowout anticipated after the August Strip revenues were released?  EBITDA was a little better but so was hold percentage.  Reported Strip baccarat volumes were up 39.6% and 87.2% in July and August, respectively, yet MGM’s wholly owned Bacc volume declined 6% in Q3.  We were hoping for more from a company that boasts to own 35-40% of the baccarat volume on the Strip.  With Aria they say it’s over 50%.  Who’s hiding the bacon or was September a complete disaster on the Strip?

 

The most interesting aspect of Q3 was the diverging fortunes of MGM’s newest assets:  MGM Macau and City Center i.e. The pretty sister and the big ugly duckling.

  • So let’s start with the pretty girl (we’ll call her Anna)
    • $83MM in EBITDA is pretty good, despite a low hold; 4Q should be even better.
    • 3Q detail: Slot win was $33MM; RC volume of $13BN with low hold of 2.6% (we assume 15% direct play); Mass table win of $113MM
    • MGM is already tracking ahead in market share for October at 9.8% for the first 10 days. So we think that if the market holds up and MGM’s hold is normal, a $100MM quarter is within reach.
    • We now believe that MGM should be able to sell the deal on about $350MM of EBITDA, which means that at 11x they can net $450MM on a 30% IPO
  • Thoughts on the ugly duckling (let’s call him Todd)
    • Is there really anything good to say about the 3rd quarter, where a $9BN property makes no money?  If there is, I’m sure Jim will say it on the next call.
    • When we stifle out the noise, CityCenter reported a marvelous result of $0 EBITDA for the quarter… here’s how we get there
      • Reported Adjusted EBITDA was $52.4MM
      • Subtract $28MM of forfeiture profits = $24MM
      • Add back $2MM of losses on condo sales ($26MM of residential EBITDA pre development & admin less the forfeitures) = $26MM
      • Less the $26MM of positive hold impact = $0MM
    • Another way to think about City Center (ex residential) is that Aria is on a run rate of $15MM/quarter… let’s say things improve a lot.. .and they get to $30MM.  Everything else is a small bleeder or small contributor but basically inconsequential unless things just really get a lot better to the tune of $50-$100 of incremental RevPAR.  Forfeitures should wind down over the next quarter or 2 so then we are left with the residential sales – which basically make no money and at best proceeds can repay the extra money that MGM is on the hook for.
    • MGM’s net obligation in City Center was $137MM last quarter – and has now increased by $232MM to $369MM per the release
    • City Center lenders can’t be too happy right now.  There must be real doubt whether this project can produce $150MM of EBITDA much less meet the 5.5x leverage covenant that comes into play in June 2010. We believe that MGM will have to make a decent pay down of the CityCenter facility as part of its debt restructuring. 

Toning Footwear - A Year Later, What's Next?

 

It's been a year since we began to see toning sales ramp from its infancy and less than 1% of the US athletic footwear market to a significant category accounting for ~7% of the industry. So where does this leave the category in terms of its size and growth outlook? Additionally, share loss at the industry leader (SKX) implies the domestic category will have to grow by 50%-75% for SKX EBIT not to contract next year. Such growth is doubtful. Adi’s outlook on the other hand is positive. Let's take a walk…

 

 

Sizing up the Market:

By our estimates, toning is a $1.2Bn category accounting for ~7% of the athletic footwear market. In the process of sizing the market, we took a detailed look into NPD Group's reported sales in the toning category YTD. Then based on the recent deceleration in the category over the last few months, we are assuming that toning stabilizes at roughly 7% of the athletic footwear, or even less as new product flows through reaccelerating the overall industry.

 

While NPD captures a broad sample of retailers throughout department store and national chains, shoe chains and athletic specialty/sporting goods channels, this sample captures most, but not all sales. As such, we estimate is captures roughly 70% of toning sales. Therefore, assuming ~$695mm in estimated sales in 2010 accounts for only ~70% of sales through those channels, we get to $1Bn on the year. In addition, NPD's sample does not account for owned retail such as Skechers, Payless, or New Balance stores for which we've added another $160mm to arrive at our ~$1.2Bn sales estimate for 2010 – on the low end of the $1.2-$1.5bn range commonly referenced in the trade. 

 

To get to $1.5bn, we’d need to assume a straight-line approach to the category’s trajectory through the summer months towards a 10% share of the industry assuming 5%+ growth through year-end. At this point, the ramp needed to achieve the incremental sales are clearly unlikely.  

 

Toning Footwear - A Year Later, What's Next? - ToningMktSize 10 2010

 

Notice the stability in sales of core athletic footwear both before and after the introduction of the toning. This suggests the category is indeed incremental and not cannibalizing other categories. This is true with the exception of the broad and generalized athletic casualty category, which has lost some of its share.

 

Toning Footwear - A Year Later, What's Next? - ToningMkt and Core Dollars Size 10 2010

 

 

Share within Athletic Footwear:

The deceleration in toning sales relative to the industry in August has been cause for concern as the category is just now facing tough comps. We suspect this is primarily due to the timing of BTS shopping when parents (i.e. Mom's) are more focused on outfitting their kids than themselves.

 

Toning Footwear - A Year Later, What's Next? - Toning Percent of Total 10 2010

 

 

Brand Proliferation (2009 - Present - Future):

This chart says it all. After highly successful pilot tests by Skechers and Reebok early in 2009, several companies noting the trend began the 9-month process to engineer, design, produce, and then ultimately ship goods to the U.S. for sale in the late fall/spring of 2009/2010. While others were ramping up their supply chains, Skechers enjoyed a decided first mover advantage for the majority of 2009.

 

Clearly, the competitive landscape has ramped substantially over the last 12-months – see the chart below. In addition to the newest entrant – Fila, both Puma and Crocs have also recently announced plans to enter the category.

 

Toning Footwear - A Year Later, What's Next? - Toning Brand SKU Count 10 2010

 

Market Share within Toning:

While Skechers dominated toning for much of 2009 with 90%+ share of the category, Reebok hit the ground running in the fall quickly capturing a sizeable share of the market. Ever since, the two have been trading share with significant variability; however the trends reflect lower highs and lower lows for Skechers while Reebok is the exact opposite. Additionally, several smaller brands are on their way to establishing 5%+ share. We’d also note that Skechers’ share is likely overstated while Reebok is probably understated by +/- 5%. As competition heightens, we expect Skechers to account for roughly 45% of the category in 2011 relative to ~60% in 2010. Based on Reebok’s upward trajectory, category extensions, and its increased commitment to spending more on the brand through the 2H than it did in the 1H, we expect the brand to account for more than 30% of the market in 2011 compared to 28% in 2010.

 

Toning Footwear - A Year Later, What's Next? - Toning Brand Mkt Shr S R 10 2010

 

Skecher's and Reebok's sales as a percent of total brand sales in these channels now represent 43% and 37%  for each brand respectively. It's important to note that this category accounts for less than 5% of total sales at companies like Adidas (Reebok), PSS (Champion) and New Balance though at Skechers it’s closer to 25% making it far more susceptible to potential trend deterioration. We’d also note that even the brands where it’s seemingly less relevant, this has been a hot category with A) little advertising requirements relative to sales, and B) hungry retailers looking to diversify away from Skechers.

 

Toning Footwear - A Year Later, What's Next? - Toning Brand Mkt Shr 10 2010

 

Sales by Channel:

Distribution has evolved in the category as the brands have. While the percent of sales sold through athletic specialty channel is largely unchanged, considerably more product has been sold through department and national chain stores with increasingly more value priced product now in the market – a trend we expect to continue, and most notably…a trend consistent with a new product/technology moving towards a much more competitive part of the maturation curve.

 

Toning Footwear - A Year Later, What's Next? - Toning Chan Dist 10 2010

 

Enter the Ladies:

Arguably the most significant impact of the toning craze has been its impact on the female consumer giving women a reason to shop in the athletic channel and providing retailers with an invaluable opportunity to gain share of wallet. With a 2%+ share gain over the past year in the female demographic, spend on toning product has been almost entirely incremental to the industry. This bodes well for future demand as lower price points continue to draw more and more women into the channel.

 

Toning Footwear - A Year Later, What's Next? - Toning AthlFW Mkt Shr Gender 10 2010

 

What’s in Store for 2011?  

For starters, this category has achieved a 7%+ share of the industry, but not until this past summer. With additional SKUs and extensions still coming out, we expect toning to hold at least a 6.5% share of the industry through 2011, which equates to 15% growth in category alone. Additionally, Skechers' success with the introduction of its new Resistance Runner in May has doubled its men's business – a demographic that has been slow to develop. Assuming men's continues to account for ~20% of sales next year, that would add another 5% to category sales next year. While this may sound bullish for Skechers, the math requires 50%-75% growth in year 2 for Skechers just to maintain EBIT dollars associated with the toning category. Take a look at the table below.

 

In looking at Skechers’ share of the industry in 2010 and gradual deterioration thereof, we assume the brand will account for ~45% of the domestic market in 2011 compared to ~60% in 2010. With price deterioration, cost inflation, and margin degradation, we estimate that incremental  Shape-up margins will come in closer to 20% in 2011 from 25%-30% EBIT in 2010. The combination of share loss and compressed incremental margin is likely to reduce 2011 EBIT dollars by $40-$75mm. That’s on an base of what we estimate to be ~$170-$200mm of Shape-Ups related EBIT in 2010.  In order to simply keep EBIT dollars flat, we’d have to assume that either: 1) Skechers maintains 60% share of the category, or 2) the domestic toning industry would have to grow 50%-75% in 2011 to $1.7-$2.0Bn. For many reasons, this simply will not happen. This has yet to be reflected in consensus estimates assuming mid-to-high single digit EBIT and earning declines in 2011 – we’re shaking out down 30%.

  

Reebok’s outlook is more positive with share gains likely to offset declines from margin degradation.  Assuming a similar margin impact, revenue growth of 25%-to-30% in 2011 could net out a few cents to the positive. The bigger opportunity for the brand exists internationally where we believe it has dominant competitive position. To the extent the brand can maintain its profitability level, Reebok’s Easy Tone’s could drive $0.10-$0.15 of incremental EPS in 2011. Not exactly earth shattering, but in light of the industry bellwether’s prospect considerably more positive.

  

Lastly, another important observation is that unit sales in the industry have been substantially higher over the last few years suggesting the capacity for additional unit demand even in the face of retracted consumer spending is possible and would still be below recent peak levels. This is not in our estimate for category growth next year. All in we're expecting the category to grow ~25% next year domestically to $1.4Bn.

 

Toning Footwear - A Year Later, What's Next? - Toning SKX Impact 10 10

 

Toning Footwear - A Year Later, What's Next? - Toning Mkt Shr Gender 10 2010

 

Toning Footwear - A Year Later, What's Next? - ToningMkt and Core Unit Size 10 2010

 

Casey Flavin

Director


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